Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 142302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
402 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will expand across the interior
west midweek, resulting in dry and stable conditions. An active
weather pattern is expected to redevelop late in the week, and
persist through the upcoming weekend.


.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Friday)...It is a clear, sunny day
across the forecast area with temperatures right around normal for
the time of year. Some haze is apparent across the Wasatch Front
due to the inversion still in place, though with modest mixing in
the lower levels air quality readings remain largely in the good
to moderate range.

High pressure will continue to build through tomorrow, with
temperatures a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon.

Clouds will increase across the north and west on Thursday ahead
of a weak system that will bring a quick shot of valley rain and
mountain snow to the forecast area Thursday night into Friday
morning. Precipitation will be mainly focused across the northern
half of the area, though there will be a brief period on Thursday
night where precip will occur across southwestern Utah.

.LONG TERM...(After 12z Friday)...Latest runs of the med range
guidance shows them in fair agreement on how they handle the
developing closed low in the ern Pac at the start of the long term
period. The EC is now farther south with the low by 00z Sat but
the low ends up in about the same place (moving into n-central
Baja) by Sat night.

This evolution sends an initial surge of moisture into the CWA on
Fri thru Sat but then indicate a break Sat night as the influence
of the closed low wanes and the nrn branch remains of the trof are
still just to our west.

The models send the nrn branch wave thru the CWA on Sun with a
break ahead of the next Pac trof Sun night into Mon with the EC
the wetter of the two for more of the CWA.

Expect precip to increase across the CWA from the south on Fri
lasting at times thru Sat then picking up again Sun.

Snow levels will stay above the valley floors during this time in
the relatively mild airmass on the downstream side of the trof and
not lower much Sun as the airmass with the trof only cools
modestly over the north.

The next trof sends an increasingly moist but mild swly flow into
the CWA on Mon and a stalling cold front into the north on Tue.
Any precip Mon and Tue looks to stay mainly over the north.


.AVIATION...No operational concerns for KSLC terminal
through the TAF period. Light northwest winds will switch to
southeast after 05z tonight, and may become light and variable at
times. A return to northerly winds between 17z and 19z Wednesday.




SHORT TERM...Hosenfeld/Merrill
LONG TERM...Wilensky

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