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000
FXUS65 KSLC 161120
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
520 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
THEN CROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
COLDER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROF IS DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROF KEPT ISOLATED CONVECTION
GOING ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL CWA THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THAT IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING OVER THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE CWA SOON BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN CWA AS THE WEST COAST TROF STARTS TO EDGE
INLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER ABOUT THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA
THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY FOR THE MOST PART.

THIS TROF MOVES ASHORE TONIGHT THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRI
CROSSING OUR CWA FRI NIGHT THRU MIDDAY SAT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NWRN UT THIS AFTN THRU FRI MORNING THEN
FINALLY PUSHES EAST FRI AFTN WITH PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD BEHIND
IT...HEAVIEST MTNS AND N.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRINGS EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SAT NIGHT THRU SUN WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND SNOW LEVELS LOWERING
TO AROUND 7000 FT FOR A TIME SUN MORNING. DONT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY
IMPACT FROM THIS SNOW ON ANY OF THE MAIN TRANSPORTATION ROUTES.

RIDGING FOLLOWS THIS WAVE MON INTO TUE WITH THE AIRMASS WARMING BACK
UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THIS ON HOW FAST
THEY SWING INLAND A DEEP COLD CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACNW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE EC WANTS TO KEEP THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
COAST WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT TO SWRN ID BY WED AFTN. LEANED
TOWARDS THE WARMER EC IN THE FORECAST AS IT IS STARTING TO GET
LATE ENOUGH IN THE SPRING WHERE IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO BRING A
COLD TROF INLAND AND THE GFS CAME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION FOR
THIS WEEKENDS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 18-19Z...WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WITH AN EXPECTED TIME
OF ARRIVAL BETWEEN 03-06Z. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS GREATER
THAN 8KTS THROUGH 09-12Z FRIDAY.

ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY WILL
LIKELY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY
WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THESE
AREAS. FUELS CONTINUE TO BE NON-CRITICAL IN THESE AREAS...SO NO
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DISTRICT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/KRUSE

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VISIT...
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