Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 200301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
901 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strong southerly flow will develop Friday ahead of
the next Pacific storm. This system will slowly cross the Pacific
Northwest through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Evening water vapor imagery and objective analysis
show an upper low spinning across the Pacific Northwest, with the
associated surface boundary extending downstream across northern
Utah. This baroclinic zone is serving as a focus for fairly
widespread precipitation across much of northern Utah along with
somewhat deeper convection along the leading edge of this boundary
resulting in occasional marginally severe gusts.

Precipitation is forecast to quickly erode overnight as the
upstream upper low drops south along the coast. This will back and
strengthen the flow aloft and force the frontal boundary to
retreat northward allowing the warm sector to quickly spread back
across northern UT.

Setup remains favorable for very strong southerly winds across
much of the forecast area excluding perhaps the far north through
the day Friday, with the strongest gusts expected across western
UT where 700mb flow is progged in the 50-55kt range...with 40-45
kts in the east.

Going forecast of diminishing POPs overnight looks in good shape,
and no updates are planned at this time.


.AVIATION...Periods of ceilings below 7000ft are likely at the
SLC terminal between 03Z and 07Z with light to moderate rainfall.
There is a slight chance that these lower ceilings persist as long
as 10Z. There is only a 10 percent chance of a thunderstorm
directly impacting the terminal the rest of the night. Timing the
switch to southeast winds is relatively low confidence; 08Z-11Z is
most likely, but the switch could occur as early as 05Z.


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MDT Friday for UTZ002-004-013-

     High Wind Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Friday for UTZ003-005-




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