Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 051139
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
439 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED JET IS NOTED DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/COLORADO PLATEAU REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM
FROM A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND FROM THE CA
COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING
TROUGH REMAINED CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUES TO INDUCE A GRADUALLY DECAYING BAND
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UT. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH SUNRISE...AND HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND...RESULTING IN
INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHILE WARMING
ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WILL BE STUNTED BY DEVELOPING INVERSIONS. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO CREST THIS RIDGE AXIS SATURDAY...AND NOW TAKE THIS
WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY TRAILING LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION REACHING NORTHERN UT. AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED
MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.



.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ATTENDANT H5
CIRCULATION CENTER GRADUALLY CENTERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WITH H7 TEMPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WARM WITH A PEAK SUGGESTED OF
+4 C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FOCUS ON WARM MOUNTAIN
TEMPS AND ENHANCEMENT OF VALLEY/BASIN INVERSIONS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN RIDGE WILL DECREASE LATE WEEK AS THE NEXT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH TRANSLATES NORTHEAST INTO THE PACNW/BRITCOL.
GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS PROGRESSION...BUT REMAIN
CONSISTENT REGARDING NET DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN AND
MAINTENANCE OF DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

AVIATION...MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH 11-12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH
THIS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF DUSTINGS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
REMAIN LIKELY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DAWN...SUB 6000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE THINNING BETWEEN 18-20Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.