Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 172203
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH SOUTH AND WEST OF A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED BUT NOT TO LEVELS SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. SBCAPE IS AROUND 300-500 J/KG...MAINLY IN THE AREA WITH THE
MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. THIS IS
ALSO COLOCATED WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE. SHEAR REMAINS MEAGER AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN PULSEY AND FAIRLY
WEAK.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THIS
MAY DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UTAH OVERNIGHT. LEFT A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION TO
MUCH OF THE STATE...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.

SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF CONVECTION AS A JET
STREAK...ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA INTO MEXICO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.

SUNDAY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...GREATLY DECREASING THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 03-04Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH ANY CIGS REMAINING WELL ABV 7000 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS PINNED BENEATH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. THIS AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVE...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING LOOKS TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY FOR
THOSE AREAS...AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS ZONE 478.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/MERRILL/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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