Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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079
FXUS65 KSLC 021042
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 AM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
WINTER STORM. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE STRONG CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...AS AN UPSTREAM JETLET APPROACHES FROM THE OREGON COAST.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS PLACE A 125-155KT CYCLONIC JET
FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. GOES/HRRR/GPS/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.05"-0.10" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.15"-0.25"
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS.

COLD ADVECTION AND A NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AND CANYON AREAS AS WELL AS
ALONG MOUNTAIN ROUTES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW HAS CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS PER UDOT. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AS SNOW IS ENDING AND WINDS ARE NOW LIGHT. TRAVEL THOUGH MAY
CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED THIS MORNING WITH I-80 STILL CLOSED WHILE
UNTREATED ROADS WILL STILL HAVE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
WAVES CROSS THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE OPEN
WAVE SHOWN BY GFS/CANADIAN AND THE SPLITTING SYSTEM SOLUTION IN THE
EUROPEAN. GIVEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...A RIDGE IS
FAVORED OVER THE WEST...AND THEREFORE AM LEANING ON THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION OF A HARDER AND FASTER SPLIT. THIS REDUCES THE CHANCE FOR
VALLEY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WASATCH AND EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THE SYSTEM SINKS SOUTH INTO ARIZONA. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE SPLIT MAY PROVIDE LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES A NET EAST-SOUTHEAST
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION INTO THE NEW MEXICO AREA. COULD MAINTAIN A
FEW TERRAIN BASED SNOW SHOWERS NAMELY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT LARGELY LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST
AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY.

GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN DETAIL REGARDING UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE SATURDAY...AND REULTANT
TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ATTM. THE MORE AMPLIFIED EC CARVES THIS TROUGH A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE TO GRAZE THE UT/ID BORDER
AND SW WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LESS
AMPLIFIED GFS/CANADIAN TRACK THE WAVE FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES LIMITING POTENTIAL OF SAID GRAZE. OPTING TO
GO LARGELY DRY AGAIN IN FORECAST...THOUGH A SHALLOW COOL FRONT AND
NET INCREASE OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED OVER THE FAR NORTH
COME SUNDAY.

A STABLE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...THIS ALLOWING A MODEST WARMING TREND ALOFT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THIS MORNING...THOUGH SHOULD PREVAIL AS A LIGHT
NORTHWEST BY 15/16Z. OPTED TO LEAVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES IN TAF
THIS MORNING AS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 7 KNOTS REGARDLESS
OF DIRECTION THIS MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ABOVE 7KT AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR UTZ010-
     012-013-517-518.

WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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