Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS UTAH TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 12Z THURSDAY)...THE COOL UPPER TROF IS MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A CLOSED CENTER
FORMING OVER SRN NV. VORT LOBES ROTATING N AHEAD OF THIS
DEVELOPING CENTER HAVE GENERATED BANDS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR CWA. ONE OF THESE IS LIFTING INTO NRN UT AND SHOULD
SLOW AND ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AS THE CLOSED CENTER SHIFTS SLOWLY
EWD TODAY. ANOTHER LOBE IS LIFTING THRU SRN UT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIFTING NWD TODAY. PRECIP SHOULD ALSO FILL IN AGAIN
ACROSS SWRN THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER.

A BROAD AREA OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP FILLS IN ACROSS WRN UT TONIGHT
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE CO BORDER.

SNOW LEVELS SHOULD STAY ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FT WITH ACCUMULATIONS
NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FT BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT SURFACES SO THE PRIMARY
TRAVEL IMPACT FROM THE SNOW WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

THE WHOLE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BY TUE AFTN AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE TUE.

THERE IS A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED BUT LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PAC TROF SPREADS OVER THE CWA BY
WED AFTN WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP STARTING UP AGAIN...INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
PLACE WILL HOLD PAT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALLOWING TWO
MORE KNOWN SHORT WAVES TO MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WELL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT OF THE SERIES WILL TREND TO CARVE A MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION SSE FROM NEVADA INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH ATTENDANT DEFORMATION AXIS STRENGTHENING OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MODEST FORCING
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW CENTER AND NORTHERN DEFORMATION...
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME WITH SNOW
LEVELS LARGELY REMAINING ABOVE 7KFT. OPTED TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE
VALLEY POPS AND LIKELY MTN POPS...WITH CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP
OWING TO HIGHER VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPS MOST ALL
AREAS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PINWHEEL SOUTH AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LATTER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DEEPENING ALONG THE
UT/NV BORDER AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
DETAILS IN EVOLUTION OF THIS VARY SLIGHTLY IN GLOBALS...THOUGH ALL
POINT TOWARDS ITS GENERAL EXISTENCE AND TRACK. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ON LOCATION OF BEST FORCING/MOISTURE ATTM...THOUGH LEANING TOWARDS
THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTH WHERE THE THERMAL GRADIENT
SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. FOR NOW HOLDING PAT ON SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22-00Z. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH CIGS HOVERING AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 6000 FT AGL BEGINNING MID MORNING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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