Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 161100
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
501 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
THE FAR SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE DRY AIR RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK VORT MAX IS
STILL SEEN ROTATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. ALTHOUGH IT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THESE
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCH OR MORE
OF PWAT STILL IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...EXPECT THE
MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH SAID VORT MAX TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ONCE AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...BUT THE DRYING TREND DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A SMALL AREA TODAY.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CARVE SOUTH AND GRAZE SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHEAST UTAH DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE
UINTAS. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 0.5-0.6
INCHES IN THAT AREA. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN
THAT AIRMASS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE LARGE.

CONTINUED DRYING ON THURSDAY WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EVEN
FURTHER...WITH CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAVING MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST AGAIN LATE
WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER UTAH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS STILL INDICATING A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POCKET OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH SAID WAVE.

THE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE AIRMASS ALREADY BECOMING RELATIVELY DRY OVER
ARIZONA...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE
REACHES UTAH. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BULGE WESTWARD OVER
ARIZONA DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRE DISTRICT WILL BE UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW TODAY AND TOMORROW THAT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LINGERING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO DRY OUT ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS TO
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL. BY
THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST UTAH BUT ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THAT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ489.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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