Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 240958
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
358 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM
THE REGION...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WILL LIFT LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WITH THE RIDGE IN
PLACE...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT IN PROXIMITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF PRIMARILY CENTRAL
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM UPPER
JET...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN UTAH.

UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD REGION ON
MONDAY...SUPPORTING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HANDLING OF UPPER TROUGH
FROM MONDAY NIGHT ON. GFS IS VERY QUICK TO SLIDE TROUGH THROUGH
REGION WITH TROUGH AXIS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  NAM OFFERS A SLOWER SOLUTION BY ROUGHLY 18 HOURS. ECMWF
CLOSES OFF LOW OVER NEVADA AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS LOW
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. WITH
POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF MODELS AND EVEN GFS ENSEMBLES
INDICATING A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS WITH CLOSED LOW...CONFIDENCE IS
DEFINITELY LOW.  THUS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN INDICATED SOME DRYING FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE IN THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REACH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NEXT
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE SLC TERMINAL...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 17-19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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