Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 291022
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
422 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
AFTER MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY)...THE RIDGE OVERHEAD REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED MAINLY HIGH-
BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RECORD CHALLENGING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. WHILE SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA FOR A FEW OF THE AREAS THE 850MB TEMP
FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ACTUALLY SHOW LOWER TEMPS BY A
HALF TO 1 DEGREE CELSIUS FOR MOST AREAS BETWEEN 00Z MON AND 00Z
TUE. THE EXCEPTION IS AT ST GEORGE...BRYCE CANYON AND EVANSTON.
DID A LITTLE TWEAKING OF TEMPERATURE BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AS HOT TODAY AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE.

THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY ARE
CURRENTLY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO GUSTY DOWN SLOPING EASTERLY WINDS. THIS IS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WYOMING AT THE SAME TIME THE
PRESSURE IS LOWERING OVER THE WEST DESERT. THE EXTRA WARM START
MAY BE THE RECIPE FOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO
OCCUR TODAY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A
WARM START DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN AN EXTRA WARM DAY.

THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES CONCENTRATES WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER WESTERN NEVADA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PLACE NORTHERN UTAH UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BECOMING DRIER
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THU)...THE HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF RETREATING WESTWARD WED NIGHT WITH A DRYING NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
PUSH THE DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE CWA BY THU
AFTN THAT PERSISTS INTO SAT.

A LITTLE CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS FROM THE
UINTAS SWD THU AND FRI BUT THIS SHOULD BE WEAK AND VERY ISOLATED.
THE VERY WARM AIRMASS SHIFTS OVER THE SRN CWA THU AND FRI
RESULTING IN A LITTLE COOLING FOR THE NORTH...ALTHO THE DIFFERENCE
MAY NOT BE MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE HIGHS BELOW 100 AT SLC.

THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT BACK EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SAT
WITH THE FLOW BACKING TO MORE WESTERLY AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE CWA. THE THERMAL BUBBLE SHIFTS NORTH AT LEAST
IN THE EC...AND TEMPS COULD TOUCH 100 AGAIN AT SLC.

THE EC AND GFS REMAIN IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE HIGH
RETREATS EAST AND AS A RESULT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF A
TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE...WITH EC BY SUN AFTN AND THE GFS A
LITTLE SLOWER.

EITHER WAY THE MOISTURE ONCE HERE STAYS AROUND THRU THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE RAISED POPS ABOVE CLIMO FOR SUN AND
MORE SO ON MON. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD ALSO KNOCK TEMPS
BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OVERHEAD REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED MAINLY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE THE RIDGE
WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL PLACE UTAH UNDER A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MOST VALLEYS
SEEING SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RH LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...WILENSKY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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