Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 211039
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
439 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL NUDGE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH TODAY. COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
UTAH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATER TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...THEN SETTLE INTO AND THEN STALL OVER
CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING. DO NOT SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GENERATING ANY PRECIP OVER UTAH TODAY AS ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE. A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATE SUNDAY. THIS SECOND FEATURE COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THOUGH WITH
THE AIR MASS REMAINING QUITE DRY WOULD DOUBT THAT MORE THAN VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RESULT FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP.

THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF FAIRLY ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
EAST FROM THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN EARLY IN
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE DYNAMIC FEATURES WILL BRING FAIRLY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DECENT MOISTURE INLAND...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF UTAH. GOOD DYNAMIC LIFT WORKING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
TROUBLE DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD PRECIP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR THE HIGHER NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH REMOVED
FROM THE PASSES SHORTWAVES TO AVOID ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP. COOLER
TEMPS WILL INVADE THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE
BY EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)...MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE
EXITED THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A TRAILING WEAKER
SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD BEGINNING THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
LATEST GFS INDICATES A COMPACT STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ON SUNDAY...BUT THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND
KEEPS IT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THIS FAR
OUT BUT HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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