Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 132321
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
521 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isentropic upglide over shallow cool air mass near the ground
strengthens tonight ahead of approaching short wave trough. Cigs
become MVFR areawide 09-15Z with areas of DZ (nern OK sites) and
FZDZ/FZRA (nwrn AR sites). Cigs become VFR late nern OK sites but
MVFR with areas IFR conditions persist elsewhere through 15/00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The main concern tonight and into Sunday morning will be the chances of
freezing drizzle/freezing rain across portions of far northeast Oklahoma
and a good chunk of northwest Arkansas. With fairly strong isentropic
lift developing late tonight into Sunday morning and a surface boundary
moving across the region, the precipitation will develop late tonight
and transition to all rain by late Sunday morning. The chances of rain
will continue across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
Sunday before tapering off from north to south Sunday night into Monday
morning. Light ice accumulations will be possible across portions of
Northwest Arkansas late tonight into Sunday morning...mainly on bridges and
overpasses. Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for much of northwest Arkansas
for this event.

For the remainder of the forecast, the story will be the unseasonably warm
temperatures with high temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
That is even with a weak frontal boundary sweeping through the region on
Tuesday. Have no pops with this feature at this time but may need to add some
low end pops for far northeast Oklahoma. The real warm up takes place Thursday
into Friday before the next cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday.
Fire weather will be the biggest concern as we move into the latter part of the
work week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...69


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