Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017



MVFR ceilings will likely affect all the terminals today, with
some improvement expected during the late afternoon and evening,
especially at the NE OK terminals. AR terminals most likely to see
TSRA late evening, overnight, as low level jet increases, but
chance still low enough to only cover with PROB30 groups. Will
carry LLWS at FSM early tomorrow morning, associated with the low
level jet.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

Sfc warm front remains well south of the Red River this morning
with isolated storms ongoing across SE OK along the elevated
frontal zone. Regional VWP data support the continued northward
advection of the deeper moisture plume and this persistent moist
upglide pattern will support isolated convection through the day.
An uptick in convective coverage is possible after sunset w/ the
strengthening low level jet and a further increase in potential
instability. A few strong to severe storms are possible within
this pattern with short term progs shifting this convection
further eastward by late Monday night.

The warm sector expands across the entire forecast area on Tues
with both temperatures and dewpoints rising to unseasonably high
values. Additionally very steep mid level lapse rates are shown to
overspread much of the region resulting in instability values
strongly atypical for this time of the year. By late afternoon
shortwave troughing will be crossing the southern Rockies with
height falls beginning to influence the region. Forecast soundings
suggest minimal inhibition will be present by this time and any
warm sector confluence zones may be sufficient to ignite storms
which would quickly become severe within a highly sheared
environment. An additional region of focus will be near the sfc
low / dryline interface tracking near the OK/KS border. Storms
originating near this zone will also quickly become severe while
the trailing cold front surging southeastward Tues evening will
provide an additional focus. The frontal forcing along with
strong synoptic scale lift will likely be sufficient to overcome
any remaining inhibition with storm chances sweeping east across
the forecast area Tues night. The aforementioned instability and
fcst shear profiles support a high conditional severe chance w/
low level shear magnitudes and orientation concerning for both
damaging straight line winds and short lived tornadoes within
stronger convective cores.

The front will push through NW AR by sunrise Wednesday with breezy
northwesterly winds and more seasonable temps following. Dry and
mild conditions then prevail through late week with the next
chance of precip arriving late next weekend.




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