Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 300905
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
405 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Area of rain and thunderstorms moving across southern OK this
morning will continue to move east, likely weakening through the
morning with waning low level jet support. Additional isolated
cells also remain possible farther north, with operational runs of
HRRR indicating some additional development through the morning.
Unstable and weakly capped airmass remains in place this afternoon
with additional storms likely to develop along residual surface
boundaries from morning convection. Winds aloft remain weak so
organized severe storms not likely, but pulse severe events as we
saw yesterday again are possible. Some lingering chance of
storms will continue tonight, though more organized activity
should become focused to our west again.

Upper level low will deepen and move across the northern plains
Tuesday, while at the same time a weaker impulse lifts northeast
across the southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. A weak
cold front will also push south into the area late Tuesday. This
results in more widespread precip during the Tue-Wed time frame
with potential for heavy rainfall as perceptible water values
forecast to approach or exceed 2 inches in parts of the area.
Details regarding the location of heaviest rainfall to be
determined, but a flood watch may ultimately be necessary.

Drier and more stable airmass north of the front will spread into
some of the area, however medium range guidance has trended less
aggressive with the frontal push later in the week. Also, Upper
low expected to linger just to our south into the weekend, which
will keep at least some chances of showers and thunderstorms for
southern areas into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  67  82  66 /  30  30  60  70
FSM   84  66  83  67 /  50  30  50  70
MLC   82  66  82  65 /  40  30  50  70
BVO   83  66  80  63 /  30  30  60  70
FYV   81  63  80  63 /  50  30  60  70
BYV   82  62  80  63 /  40  30  60  70
MKO   82  65  81  65 /  40  30  60  70
MIO   83  63  81  63 /  30  30  60  70
F10   81  66  81  64 /  40  30  60  70
HHW   83  67  84  67 /  50  30  40  70

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.