Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong south winds and areas of MVFR cigs will persist through
the afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorms
will develop along this boundary late this afternoon...with
strong/severe winds possible as a line of storms moves through
northeast OK this evening and into northwest AR toward 04-06z.
Expect improving conditions as the strongest storms move east
of the TAF sites after 09z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1058 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The cold front stretched across west central KS into the OK
panhandle late this morning...with the dryline extending south
through the TX panhandle. Hi-res/short term guidance consistent in
developing convection to our west...primarily after 21z. Could see
two areas of intial development...one along the advancing cold
front across KS/northern OK and another in the vicinity of the
triple point in southwest OK/northwest TX. This activity will
quickly become linear...with strong/severe storms pushing into
northeast OK after 00z and southeast OK/northwest AR toward 06z.

Delayed the onset of higher PoPs across the far northwestern
sections of our forecat area until later this
afternoon...otherwise forecast was left as is.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  71  44  76 / 100  10   0   0
FSM   59  70  46  76 / 100  40  10  10
MLC   55  70  43  78 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   50  72  38  76 / 100  10   0   0
FYV   54  64  38  71 / 100  30  10  10
BYV   55  65  44  71 / 100  40  10  10
MKO   53  69  44  76 / 100  20   0   0
MIO   51  68  43  74 / 100  20   0   0
F10   53  70  45  77 / 100  10   0   0
HHW   58  71  47  79 / 100  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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