Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 140136
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
836 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
Current forecast is on track.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
The 00z TAF discussion is included below...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Surface high pressure will remain in control over the region over
the next 24 hours...beneath NW flow aloft. The troposphere is
fairly dry throughout...thus VFR conditions will prevail.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
Warm temperatures along with low afternoon relative humidity
values will result in a limited fire danger threat over the next
few days. Thursday will likely be the most critical day as south
winds increase some ahead of the next frontal system. Thursday
also shaping up to be quite warm/hot...as a low-level thermal
ridge develops across the region. Expect afternoon highs ranging
from the mid 80s/lower 90s.
Aforementioned cold front is scheduled to dip into northeast
Oklahoma late Thursday and should pass through the rest of the
forecast area by Friday morning. Forecast moisture profiles are
rather meager...but there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a
few post-frontal showers across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Thursday night. Otherwise...expect an extended period of
near seasonal temperatures Friday and through the weekend...with
south winds return by Sunday as the surface ridge shifts off to
Warmer weather is expected to return by next week as the upper
flow becomes southwesterly ahead of the next upper system. The
next reasonable chance of precipitation looks to develop later
Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper system ejects into the Plains.