000
FXUS64 KTSA 250824
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Scattered strong thunderstorms have develop early this morning
across portions of northeast Oklahoma.  Elevated instability around
1500 J/kg, coupled with deep layer at 40 knots, will support marginally
severe hail through the morning hours. Some potential for storms
to train over the same locations, so a few swaths of heavier rainfall
will be possible. Antecedent soil conditions are fairly dry given the
lack of rainfall over the past 2 weeks, so flooding initially will
not be a concern.

Initial upper level storm system will lift into the central Plains
tonight. Expect strong to severe storms to develop west of the area
this evening and begin to move into eastern Oklahoma late tonight.
Although surface based instability (1500 J/kg) will not maximized,
strong kinematics are forecast with 0-1 km shear in the 30-35 knots.
This environment will support a limited threat for a brief tornado
or two, but the main concern will likely be damaging wind gusts
in the stronger bow segments along with heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Severe threat will likely continue Friday morning as scattered
thunderstorms move across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas in association with 90kt upper jet streak
lifting into area from the southwest. Still some uncertainty
regarding evolution of storms Friday afternoon. Depending on how
much heating occurs, could see an uptick in severe storms across
southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas Friday afternoon.
Although a very unstable air-mass will redevelop across eastern
Oklahoma behind the earlier convection, weak forcing along dry
line/Pacific front may not be sufficient for additional thunderstorm
development. Any severe threat will be highly conditional, but
with that said, the overall environment would be very favorable a
discrete supercell or two.

Should be a lull in the weather Friday night ahead of secondary
and more potent storm system Saturday. As upper low lifts into the
central Plains Saturday afternoon a very unstable air-mass is
expected to develop west of the area as dry line moves through
western Oklahoma. Although timing is always a little uncertain
this far in advance, including any inhibiting mesoscale features,
it appears likely that a higher end severe weather event will
occur with storms initially developing west of the area.

Main severe threat will again primarily occur Saturday night as a
broken line of severe storms move into northeast Oklahoma.
Environment will remain conducive for severe weather with moderate
surface based instability. Very strong wind fields, including the
potential for backed low level winds, may support a few tornadoes,
although damaging winds will again be the main threat.

Severe threat should transition to flooding concerns late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. PWATS in the 1.50-1.75 inch range will
produce torrential rain in the stronger storms, which will likely
cause localized flash flooding, especially in areas with earlier
rainfall.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the severe/heavy
rainfall threat will continue on Sunday across SE OK/NW AR as main
upper trough axis swings through during the day. Weak frontal
boundary will hopefully push south into the ArkLaTx by Monday
morning with thunderstorm chances ending, at least in the short
term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Scattered to overcast mid clouds are forecast to give way to MVFR
ceilings late tonight/early Thursday morning as additional
showers/storms develop and move into the CWA. Will continue with
Tempo groups for timing of greater thunder potential into mid
morning. Behind the showers/storms a period of scattered to broken
MVFR to low end VFR ceilings are forecast through the afternoon
hours. The exception to this looks to be far Northwest Arkansas
where MVFR ceilings are forecast through the end of the TAF
period. By Thursday evening...MVFR ceilings are forecast to
overspread the CWA again with additional chances for
showers/storms. Winds through the period start out east to
southeast and become southeasterly during the day with increasing
intensity. KFSM should remain the exception where easterly winds
continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  64  81  67 /  90  90  70  10
FSM   71  63  77  68 /  70  50  90  50
MLC   79  66  79  67 /  40  80  90  30
BVO   71  60  82  63 /  90  90  70  10
FYV   67  58  73  63 /  90  50  90  50
BYV   62  55  74  64 /  90  50  90  50
MKO   72  62  77  66 /  70  80  90  20
MIO   65  59  76  65 / 100  80  90  20
F10   77  64  80  67 /  60  90  80  20
HHW   78  66  75  66 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20