Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 022305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KBVO. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LAST BIT OF LINGERING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN THE
PAST HOUR WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER STABLE RAIN
COOLED AIR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
STORM COMPLEX SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. AERIAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT DUE TO OVERALL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE NEAR KANSAS BORDER WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST
NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED THE AERIAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME AREA LIKELY TO BE
VERY WARM AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. AND POTENTIALLY FORCE A
STRONGER FRONT SOUTH JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




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