Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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141
FXUS64 KTSA 121112
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
612 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An upper low over the four corners region was apparent via water
vapor imagery this morning. This feature will gradually slide
eastward into the Great Plains today... bringing increasing shower
and thunderstorm activity across the CWA. With moisture advecting
into the area and strengthening isentropic ascent, clouds and
precip chances should generally increase from SW to NE through the
afternoon. Potential exists for perhaps some small hail with the
most intense elevated cores... though with generally poor
instability in place, storms are expected to remain sub- severe.

Afternoon highs will be cooler than yesterday given clouds &
increasing precip. Overall though, temps remain near average with
SE OK being the coolest in the mid 70s. Additionally, SSE winds
increase during the day, gusting 15-25 mph, in response to a
deepening sfc trough to our west. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Better shower/ storm chances continue across the region tonight
through Monday as the upper level system gradually moves overhead
with a sfc low and associated weak cold front pushing through the
area. Instability will be increasing early Monday morning into the
afternoon hours... particularly across SE OK & NW AR... and with
sufficiently steep lapse rates & shear values, marginally severe
hail or wind may be observed with the strongest storms. However,
the severe threat is still expected to remain on the marginal
side, especially for May standards. PWATs between 1.25 to 1.5" are
advertised during the Sunday- Monday time frame, suggesting that
locally heavy rainfall may become a concern, especially given how
wet things have been recently. While much of the area should be
clear of precip by Monday night, guidance holds on to some wrap
around moisture and thus low precip chances across NW AR through
Tuesday morning & afternoon. Any rainfall during this period
should remain fairly light, however. Overall, expecting total QPF
Sunday through Tuesday in the 0.5 to 1.5" range... with a low
potential for locally higher totals up to 2".

While there will be a break in precip Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, rain and storm chances return Wednesday night through
Friday as multiple impulses move through our area. Locally heavy
rainfall and a marginal severe threat may again evolve during this
time frame, but significant impacts are not expected as of now.
Ridging develops for the weekend with pleasant weather returning
to the CWA.

High temps will tend to hover near to slightly below seasonal
averages (upper 70s to lower 80s) through the extended period,
with a warm up expected by the weekend (mid-upper 80s). Low temps
remain in the 50s and 60s. While winds may be periodically breezy
as each weather system impacts the CWA, gusts should keep to the
15-25 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Better shower/ storm chances continue across the region tonight
through Monday as the upper level system gradually moves overhead
with a sfc low and associated weak cold front pushing through the
area. Instability will be increasing early Monday morning into the
afternoon hours... particularly across SE OK & NW AR... and with
sufficiently steep lapse rates & shear values, marginally severe
hail or wind may be observed with the strongest storms. However,
the severe threat is still expected to remain on the marginal
side, especially for May standards. PWATs between 1.25 to 1.5" are
advertised during the Sunday- Monday time frame, suggesting that
locally heavy rainfall may become a concern, especially given how
wet things have been recently. While much of the area should be
clear of precip by Monday night, guidance holds on to some wrap
around moisture and thus low precip chances across NW AR through
Tuesday morning & afternoon. Any rainfall during this period
should remain fairly light, however. Overall, expecting total QPF
Sunday through Tuesday in the 0.5 to 1.5" range... with a low
potential for locally higher totals up to 2".

While there will be a break in precip Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, rain and storm chances return Wednesday night through
Friday as multiple impulses move through our area. Locally heavy
rainfall and a marginal severe threat may again evolve during this
time frame, but significant impacts are not expected as of now.
Ridging develops for the weekend with pleasant weather returning
to the CWA.

High temps will tend to hover near to slightly below seasonal
averages (upper 70s to lower 80s) through the extended period,
with a warm up expected by the weekend (mid-upper 80s). Low temps
remain in the 50s and 60s. While winds may be periodically breezy
as each weather system impacts the CWA, gusts should keep to the
15-25 mph range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Of immediate concern is the batch of showers and thunderstorms
extending roughly as far east as Highway 81 in western Oklahoma,
making eastward progress early this morning. The bulk of the
guidance points toward diminishing coverage and intensity before
it reaches eastern Oklahoma, which is consistent with the current
lack of instability this far east. Will leave any mention of this
activity out of the TAFs given the above reasoning but the chance
of on-station impacts primarily at BVO/TUL/RVS is nonzero. As far
as expectations beyond this morning, there remains a high
likelihood of widespread MVFR/IFR conditions toward the latter
half of the TAF period from an increase in low clouds and
potential for shower and thunderstorm impacts. Will keep any
mention of TS impacts in PROB30 groups with concerns about actual
thunderstorm coverage versus simply showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  62  77  60 /  30  80  70  20
FSM   80  63  78  62 /  30  70  80  30
MLC   76  62  78  60 /  50  50  60  10
BVO   79  58  76  56 /  30  90  80  30
FYV   78  59  75  57 /  20  80  90  40
BYV   79  59  75  59 /  30  70  90  50
MKO   78  62  76  59 /  30  70  80  20
MIO   79  60  74  58 /  30  90  90  50
F10   76  62  76  59 /  40  70  60  20
HHW   73  62  79  60 /  70  50  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22