Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 281428
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
828 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Freezing rain advisory dropped for Washington and Creek counties
as temperatures remain above 32 degrees. May be able to drop the
remainder of the advisory in Osage and Pawnee counties with the
mid morning update if temperatures will rise a degree or so from
current levels. Rest of forecast unchanged at this time. gw
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread rains will continue today with a decrease in coverage
and intensity tonight. Low ceilings will largely remain in place
yielding primarily IFR conditions. These low flight conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period with any localized
improvements being brief.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/
After a brief lull in the evening across a good chunk of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, light to moderate rain is again
expanding northeastward early this morning in response to the
approach of the upper jet from southern New Mexico into the
Panhandle region. The heaviest rain will remain across parts of
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas nearest the low level
jet and consequent maximum in low level moisture transport. Areal
coverage will diminish some tonight between the exit of the
aforementioned upper speed maximum and the approach of the next
one during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. After today,
however, the heaviest rains will shift south and east of the
area, with light to occasionally moderate rain chances continuing
through the rest of the weekend. No changes are planned to the
Flash Flood Watch this morning.
Temperatures early this morning have bottomed out, with 3-hour
temperature trends indicating either steady or very slowly rising
values. With this trend expected to continue, the freezing rain
area to the west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma is at its
maximum extent. Western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties could
see an additional tenth of an inch or so of ice accumulation
before surface temperatures warm above freezing late this morning.
The only change to the existing Freezing Rain Advisory will be to
push back the expiration time to noon.
Dry and warmer weather will make a return Monday to Tuesday, as
the main upper low exits the region to the northeast.
Temperatures will still largely be below freezing, though.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 38 37 43 38 / 90 70 60 50
FSM 47 45 49 45 / 100 80 80 50
MLC 40 38 44 39 / 100 90 80 50
BVO 35 35 41 36 / 80 70 50 50
FYV 43 40 47 40 / 100 80 70 50
BYV 42 39 46 40 / 100 70 70 50
MKO 42 39 45 40 / 100 80 70 50
MIO 40 37 44 39 / 80 60 60 50
F10 38 36 42 38 / 100 90 70 50
HHW 44 42 47 42 / 100 90 100 50
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053-
Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ054-059.
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-