Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280241
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
941 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A mid level shortwave was entering into Western Kansas late this
evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of
Kansas and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms across
parts of Oklahoma. Across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...light rain showers were moving over Northeast
Oklahoma...mainly along and north of Interstate 44. Across the
rest of the CWA...partly to mostly cloudy skies and east to
southeasterly winds were common.

Overnight...scattered light rain showers along with possible
isolated embedded thunderstorms are forecast to continue to move
east northeast across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as
the shortwave lifts northeast across the Plains. For the evening
update...have lowered the thunderstorm potential as the greater
instability should reside near the wave in Kansas and also across
Texas were a surface frontal boundary was positioned. This
boundary is progged to lift into the CWA by Friday
morning...though most of the precip chances should be lifting out
of the region ahead of the boundary and instability.

Temperatures overnight look to only cool slightly as the boundary
over Texas lifts into the CWA and mostly cloudy skies remain over
the region. The cooler temps of lower 50s should be located
within the precip areas near the Kansas border to the upper 50s
in Southeast Oklahoma behind the lifting boundary. Made minor
tweaks to sky/temp/dewpoint grids based on current trends and
adjusted wind gusts down a bit as the shortwave looks to lift
more northeast of the CWA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  76  60  68 /  60  20  90 100
FSM   56  77  67  80 /  30  30  80 100
MLC   59  78  67  75 /  10  30  60 100
BVO   52  75  56  63 /  60  10  80 100
FYV   55  72  63  74 /  50  30  90 100
BYV   54  71  63  74 /  50  30  80 100
MKO   56  75  63  74 /  40  30  90 100
MIO   54  74  58  67 /  60  20  80 100
F10   57  76  63  71 /  30  30  80 100
HHW   58  81  70  78 /  10  30  60 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     OKZ049-057-058-060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05



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