Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 230515
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1115 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread and persistent low ceilings will continue to impact
flight conditions with IFR/LIFR prevailing through much of the
forecast period. Rain with scattered thunderstorms will spread
northward tomorrow w/ any early day ceiling improvements being
brief ahead of the precipitation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 910 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Most of the afternoon and early evening showers and all of the
thunderstorms have pushed east of the area. The few remaining
showers in far southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas will likely
move out within the next couple of hours. Additional showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just south of the
area near the 850 front and may begin to expand northward into
far southeast Oklahoma as early as a couple of hours before
sunrise tomorrow morning. Have retooled the POP/Wx forecasts to
reflect a few hour lull between the exit of the afternoon/evening
activity and the expected early morning activity.

Fog may also become a problem across portions of the area,
although due to persistent low clouds, do not think widespread
dense fog is likely at this point. Visibilities may get down to a
mile or less in a few spots, especially across parts of northeast
Oklahoma where some cloud reduction is possible. If fog does
develop, it is not out of the question that a few spots, mainly
from Bartlesville west, could see freezing fog. Later shifts will
have to monitor that potential, as it has not been included in the
official forecast due to the uncertainties in areal coverage and
visibilities.

Remaining elements, including the forecast low temperatures,
appear on track with the latest guidance. Updated products already
out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  49  44  63 /  10  60  80  60
FSM   42  55  51  68 /  20  80  80  80
MLC   37  50  48  67 /  10  90  90  80
BVO   32  49  40  60 /  10  20  70  60
FYV   41  56  50  64 /  20  80  90  80
BYV   42  55  49  65 /  20  60  90  80
MKO   37  50  47  64 /  10  80  90  70
MIO   36  50  44  60 /  10  30  80  70
F10   36  49  46  63 /  10  80  80  70
HHW   41  56  52  67 /  50  90  70  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Friday through Saturday afternoon for
     OKZ049-053-075-076.

AR...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Friday through Saturday afternoon for
     ARZ020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....07



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