Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 140444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ANY TAF SITE... BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD... GENERALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECKS



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD... GENERALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MID TO HIGH
CLOUD DECKS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. ISOLATED STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING IMMINENT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...BUT SOME MODEST CU IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE.

COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW IN MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHICH WILL REMAIN VERY NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THIS
FRONT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY CONTINUE
TO LOOK 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE LATEST DATA HINTING THAT IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR WESTERN ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALSO AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE LATEST NAM RUNS
SHOWING THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN COOLER THAN TUESDAYS...AND LIKELY 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
DEFINITELY IN JEOPARDY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THE 17TH AND PERHAPS
TUESDAY THE 15TH IN A FEW SPOTS. WEDNESDAY THE 16TH LOOK SAFE AT
THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FORT SMITH AND FAYETTEVILLE.

FOR THOSE CURIOUS ABOUT THE CURRENT RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEK...

TULSA...78 /15TH/...72 /16TH/...82 /17TH/
FORT SMITH...73 /15TH/...68 /16TH/...76 /17TH/
FAYETTEVILLE...76 /15TH/...65 /16TH/...76 /17TH/
MCALESTER...80 /15TH/...71 /16TH/...82 /17TH/

RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP NEXT WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





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