000
FLUS44 KTSA 160011
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
711 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
711 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.


DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH THE CONCERN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE
REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TIMING OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED WITH TIME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$