Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FLUS44 KTSA 142150
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
450 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
450 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
 AREA...North of I-44, and primarily northwest of a Stillwater to Bartlesville line.
ONSET...After 8 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and north of I-44.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending briefly this evening...then continuing overnight after cold front passes.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms this evening,
mainly along and northwest of a Stillwater to Bartlesville line.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat. There is a limited risk
of severe thunderstorms with a gradually lessening wind threat across
the remainder of northeast Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front over
Kansas this afternoon and gradually organize into a broken line as
the front surges south into northeast Oklahoma by around 9 PM. The
greatest potential for damaging winds will be along and northwest
of a Stillwater to Bartlesville line as the storms enter the
region initially. The latest data continues to indicate that the
severe wind potential will wane fairly quickly afterward, likely
ending by midnight as storms will tend to be undercut the
southward surging cold front. As the broken line of storms moves
thru western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma during the overnight,
the activity is expected to be sub-severe by this point.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, where between a half inch to
1 inch of rainfall is expected. The fast moving nature of the
system suggests that heavy rain at any one location will not last
long enough to generate an appreciable flash flood threat.

Gusty south winds will continue through the afternoon with a brief
lull this evening ahead of the cold front.  Once the front passes
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common with gusty winds continuing
into Sunday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY thru FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Gusty north winds will continue thru Sunday along with
noticeably cooler temperatures.  No hazardous weather
is currently forecast for the upcoming work week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$


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