Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 241756
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1256 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1256 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...
...MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS PARTS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL THAT A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT PRIMARILY PARTS OF
OSAGE OR PAWNEE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTINESS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY...WITH
THE DRYLINE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES COULD INITIATE
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CAP STRENGTH MAY
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
IF A STORM DEVELOPS...ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ALL SEVERE
MODES POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON MONDAY IF A STORM DEVELOPS.

THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE TUESDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS DRYLINE STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER THURSDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
FLOODING COULD BECOME A ISSUE AROUND THIS TIME GIVEN THE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REVIEW
SAFETY PLANS AND BEGIN TO MAKE SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS...AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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