Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 161012
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
512 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...WEST OF HIGHWAY 69.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
69...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
INITIAL STORMS.

LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL
LINE AND SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE COMMON AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
         HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...INCREASES LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. EVENT COORDINATORS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE MANY OUTDOOR WEEKEND FESTIVITIES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$




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