Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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372
FLUS44 KTSA 281013
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
513 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016



THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.



DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL RETURN LATE TONIGHT
TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTH
NORTHEAST...AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SEVERITY...AND TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURS
DURING THE DAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WHILE TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THIS AREA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SETUP ALSO FAVORS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING DRY LINE. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE AREA.
AFTER A DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO
PARTS OF THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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