Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 271701
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  RAISED SKY COVER A LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATE MIXING
UP TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF
CU THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS MIXING MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FLURRIES AS WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
TO THE FLURRIES FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY REACH 40.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM OK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAF CYCLE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO KEEP ALL SITES VFR AS WE
HAVE SEEN SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT IN THE CEILING THUS FAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY GUSTING YET SO DECIDED TO
BACK OFF ON THE GUSTS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...STAYING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 18/1900Z. THEN THE
GUSTS WILL BE REINSTATED. ALSO...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES CROSS THE TAF SITES. THESE ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME FOR ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE AND FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HERE AT
IND...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST VISIBILITIES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 6 SM. LAF WOULD POSSIBLY BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE RECENTLY DROPPED AS LOW AS 2SM...BUT CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 SM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THE LOW
VSBYS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENTLY...DO NOT PLAN ON INCLUDING IN LAF TAF.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MRD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.