Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES MAY
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WABASH VALLEY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE OVER ARKANSAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WAS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AS OF 02Z.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TO BACK OFF ON
PRECIP CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY NEAR KHUF BACK INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY. THESE WERE GENERALLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST...AND EXPECT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
THROUGH 06Z WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
WEAKENS IT OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER PRECIP DEVELOPING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE ARRIVES ON
SATURDAY...THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HELD ONTO 30 POPS OVER THE
WABASH VALLEY...BUT LOWERED TO 20 AT BEST ELSEWHERE CONSIDERING
ABOVE THOUGHTS.

WARM HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK. VERY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS REGISTER
THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE NIGHT OF THE YEAR AS WELL.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST OFF TO THE CENTER OF STAGE.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR
FORT WAYNE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE BY 18Z SATURDAY AND TO ABOUT A
GREENSBURG TO BEDFORD LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MCV OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND INTERACT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO NEAR 2 INCHES. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT
QPF...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A NEW CASTLE TO BEDFORD LINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PROBABILITY GRAPHIC. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOST INSTABILITY DRIVEN (MIXED LAYER CAPES
TO 1000 J/KG OR SO) WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFT SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z
NAM LOOKED TOO COOL FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE WARMER GFS ONLY HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S. FINALLY...MONDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
WARM BACK TO 70 DEGREES OR MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO AGREEING
ON A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH AND GETTING CUT OFF OVER
THE GULF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS. IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW COULD SWING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BRING SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE TO HELP THE FORCING OVERCOME THE
INHIBITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LEFTOVER CONVECTIION PRIOR TO START OF TAF FORECAST HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED AFTER INTERACTION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND REMAINING
AVAILABLE ENERGY.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION PRETTY CERTAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAP MAY START
TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 301600Z. HOWEVER NO CLEAR CUT TRIGGER
OR FOCUS AT THIS TIME TO PIN DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING. AS A
RESULT...WILL JUST GO WITH A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS BY MID DAY WITH BASES AROUND 030. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION AS TERRE HAUTE EXPERIENCED EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS STILL VARY ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WHICH DETERMINES HOW WINDS
WILL SHIFT SATURDAY EVENING. IF LOW TRACKS NORTH OF TERMINLAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. IF LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE
SWINGING TO NORTH WITH LOWS PASSAGE.

STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED FROM 310000Z THROUGH
0900Z-1200Z IN WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUD DECKS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING MODERATE RAIN AS COLDER
AIR DRIVES IN ON NORTH WIND SOMETIME AFTER 310300Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR KIND. CUMULUS HAVE DISSIPATED. SMALL
CHANCE KHUF SHOWERS MAY PROGRESS INTO AREA IN SEVERAL HOURS SO
WILL MONITOR.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...TUCEK

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