Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 160433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION BEFORE PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN SHUT OFF BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 933 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND A WEAK TROUGH THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NY
ACROSS OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN IOWA.

THE WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEPART OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALLOWING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS. ALSO
WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS UPSTREAM...HAVE TRENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AND THUS
TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT...HOWEVER MOS APPEARS A
BIT AGGRESSIVE ON MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO NUMBERS UPSTREAM AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES. HAVE GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COOL
MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS AND WARMER MOS ON HIGHS. MOS APPEARS MUCH
BETTER ON LOWS ESPECIALLY GIVEN NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT...AND WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HAVE LARGELY
GONE WITH MOS ON MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PER SIMILAR MODEL QPF TIMING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK UP IN THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 160600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS 004-008 AGL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECTING THESE CEILINGS TO AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE IFR AND POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT
AROUND/AFTER 161800Z.

RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY ISSUANCE TIME.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS BECOMING 010-020 AT 6-8 KTS BY
LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/CP

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