Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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112
FXUS63 KIND 261014
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
614 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Off and on storm chances will continue until mid way through the
weekend when upper ridging reestablishes over the area. Near
normal temperatures should be the rule through most of the period,
with Wednesday looking like the warmest day with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Could see some patchy fog near daybreak with dew point
depressions of only a degree or two in several spots across the
forecast area, but that should burn off or mix out quickly after
sunrise. Hi res guidance shows a line of showers and thunderstorms
forming along a boundary currently stalled out across southern
central Indiana by if not before mid morning and hanging around
into the afternoon/evening hours before moving off to the
southeast. Think coverage could be somewhat overdone given several
runs have been showing more currently than what is seen on radar
over Illinois and moisture looks overdone. However enough
potential there to bring in high chance pops along the southern
border this afternoon and ramp up to it this morning. For
temperatures most solutions are in the mid 80s, and think this is
reasonable given the potential for cloud cover throughout much of
the day and some rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday/...

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Tonight will see the boundary shift south and the storm chances
should go with it. Will leave a slight chance in the south as a
wave moves along the front. On Wednesday increased to a chance
along the far southern border as the front could start to move
back north. For Wednesday night through Thursday night, a
stronger upper wave should combine with the front to produce some
solid thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and with likely PoPs in
the south and southeast Thursday. Chances continue to Thursday
night and beyond.

For temperatures think mainly mid 80s are a good bet given the
potential for thunderstorms and cloud cover through most of the
period and cooler 850 mb temperatures. Possible exception to this
is on Wednesday when PoPs are confined to the southern counties
and thus could see upper 80s especially north where ample sunshine
is possible.

At this point looks like axis of heavy rainfall will set up south
of the area, but will need to monitor with upcoming forecasts
repeat development along the boundary if it becomes stationary
rather than meandering.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...

Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

ECMWF suggests a low pressure system and cyclonic flow pushing
through the Great Lakes and Indiana on Friday and Saturday. Aloft
ECMWF suggests a weak...broad trough in place across the upper
midwest and great lakes. Superblend keeps chc pops in place as
these features passes...which seems reasonable.

As the low moves to the east coast on Sunday through Tuesday...High
pressure...ridging and subsidence is expected as depicted by the
ECMWF. Given this and the relatively cooler and drier air mass
that is expected across the area...have tried to add value to the
forecast by removing pops as suggested by superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 261200Z tafs/...

Issued at 614 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected this taf period.

Tropical plume of moisture streaming across southern Indiana along
with a weak short wave will generate scattered showers and
thunderstorms this morning across the southern 1/2 of the Indiana.
Furthermore...the remnants of the weak frontal boundary remain
across the southern parts of the state...providing lower level
convergence. Forecast soundings and time height sections show a
saturated column though the morning hours...followed by drying
late in the day. Rapid refresh...albeit a bit over
aggressive...also appears to denote this trend. Precise timing
seems uncertain...but for now will use vcsh/vcts window at
IND/BMG/HUF through 17Z-20Z. LAF appears to be too far north from
the frontal boundary for precip mention and have left it out
there.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



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