Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 270201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.


Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Upped PoPs across the southwestern forecast area where rain and
thunderstorms are widespread. Otherwise tweaked them across the
remainder of the area as needed. There will still be a downward
trend as outflow pushes out of the area and instability weakens.

Lowered low temperatures in some areas as well thanks to rain cooled

Thunderstorms in the south still have the potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph and torrential rainfall for the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion follows...

Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning. will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Broken line of convection continues to drift southeast through the state.
Moderate instability located ahead of line, so expecting this line to hold
steady for several more hours. Threat for direct impacts at the terminals
will remain high until this line passes, around 270400Z. Brief IFR or lower
visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds expected in and near the
heavier cells. CB bases around 040.

Some of the model data hint at additional nocturnal convective development
over southern Indiana later tonight, possibly affecting the KBMG terminal.
850mb flow expected to be rather weak later tonight, so this potential is
questionable at this time.

Outside of convection, scattered to broken layers above 050 tonight. Surface
winds 230-260 degrees at 8-12 kts early this evening will become light by


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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