Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250456
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1156 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

A frontal system will bring additional rainfall, a few
thunderstorms, and perhaps a strong to severe storm or two to
central Indiana tonight, before high pressure in the wake of the
cold front allows some time for the area to dry out early in the
week. Additional rain chances can be expected mid to late week
with another low pressure system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 934 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Update...
Current forecast is on track, so no changes. Issued an areal flood
warning for the southern tier of counties where rain has been
heaviest this evening. Updated grids have been sent.

Previous Discussion...
The next slug of rainfall associated with a leading upper wave and
the surface low is on our doorstep and will be overspreading the
area over the next few hours. Will go with 100 pops early in the
evening, tapering them off steadily from west to east after
midnight as the front sweeps through the area.

Embedded thunder will be a threat at times, particularly this
evening, and potential will exist for a few strong to severe
storms in the strongly dynamic environment. However,
destabilization thus far has been minimal across the area, which
will help to limit threat. Still, will have to keep a close eye on
storms particularly across the south this evening for wind or
perhaps a brief spinup.

Another round of rainfall will again contribute to a worsening
hydrologic situation across the area, and will continue the flood
watch as is. Expect an additional 1 to perhaps 2 inches of rain
across the watch areas, which will likely push portions of the
White, East Fork White, and other smaller rivers into moderate
flood, along with the Wabash which is receiving high water from
upstream. Additionally, poor drainage areas and smaller streams
will be in danger of flash flooding this evening with any
thunderstorms which may produce quick bursts of high rain rates.

Consensus temperatures were generally acceptable with only minor
tweaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

High pressure will dominate the area through the short term, with
clear skies and quiet weather.

Consensus temperatures generally appeared to be in the ballpark,
save for Sunday. Lowered them a bit as with the cold front moving
through early in the morning and cold advection ongoing much of
the day, this should limit warming somewhat.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 209 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Upper energy will eject out of the southwestern USA early in the
period, leading to an upper low moving across the forecast area on
Thursday. As this moves out at the end of next week, upper ridging
will move in.

The upper system will lead to the development of a decent surface
low, forecast to be around Chicago by Thursday afternoon.

The result for central Indiana will be rain chances starting later
Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday night. Dry weather
then looks to move in to end next week.

Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, then near
normal readings can be expected behind the low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 25/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1150 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

TAF sites are in a bit of a lull as far as showers and
thunderstorms, but conditions still remain at MVFR/IFR levels and
another weak line could impact the area over the next several
hours. Conditions should become high end MVFR shortly before
daybreak though, then improve to VFR for the remainder of the TAF
period. Low level wind shear will continue to be a threat over
the next few hours, and winds will strengthen out of the southwest
with sustained speeds of 12 to 15 kts, gusting to 28 kts through
Sun 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ030-031-035>049-051>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield/TDUD
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TDUD


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