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000
FXUS63 KIND 082234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY. HOWEVER SEASONAL READINGS WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH.

NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT OR AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ALSO MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE
CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR A
SNOW/RAIN MIX...WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...NOT MUCH FORCING WILL BE AROUND WITH THE
FRONT MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH. KEPT VERY LOW POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT
ENDED RAIN ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS FORCING EXITS.

SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN ALL NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG NORTHWEST WHERE
ANY CLEARING WILL OCCUR EARLIEST. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN
BE USED.

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER MAV MOS NUMBERS.

WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND A SOUTHWEST WIND. A FRONT WILL
TRY AND WORK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING SOME CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES. WENT WARMER THAN MOS GIVEN HOW MOS HAS PERFORMED
RECENTLY IN WARMER REGIMES.

FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
WITH COLDER AIR NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO THE AREA /DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/ CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

FOCUS OF LONG TERM REMAINS MID WEEK STORM. MODELS ARE TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
SNOW WEDNESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO TEMPERATURES. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
REASONABLE BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. WILL
INITIALLY SEE A DROP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RECOVERING AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

BACK EDGE OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-020 CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS BACK EDGE AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BEGINNING AT KLAF AROUND 090300Z...AND TOWARDS 090600Z-090700Z AT
KIND/KBMG. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG/HAZE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE DEPTH OF THE
COLDER AIR INCREASES WITH TIME AND MIXING IMPROVES.

SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG REDEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AFTER SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA WITH TIME...SO CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS SEEM LOW AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE WINDS 340-360 DEGREES AROUND 12-14 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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