Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGINS TO MOVE ON TO THE EAST FRIDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL
MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY ON...AS MODELS
DIG ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING IT BACK NORTH AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
BUT THEY SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
AS THE EURO...GFS AND GEMNH HAVE TRENDED COOLER.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S FRIDAY...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SATURDAY...70 TO 75 SUNDAY AND 70S
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALL 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LOOKING AT RADAR AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...KIND LIKELY TO SEE IFR
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS ADDED TO THE TAF. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TAFS STARTING OUT IFR OR MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK TO MVFR TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIG INTO OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY.  WEATHER DEPICTION SHOWS MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT KIND...KBMG AND KHUF AND MVFR AT KLAF.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KLAF COULD BE
VFR BY NOON.

AFTER THAT IT SHOULD BE VFR...UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHEN SHOWERS SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/50


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