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000
FXUS63 KIND 201040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME IN TO PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY ON WITH THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL START UP AND WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM FROM YESTERDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN AND IS VERY SIMILAR SO
USED AN AVERAGE FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT HAVE TROUBLE CLIMBING MUCH DUE TO
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
ON FRIDAY BUT WILL STAY NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BY
SATURDAY THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ENOUGH TO BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...MATCHED NICELY BY AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.
WENT DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
GENERALLY STUCK VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AVERAGE FOR HIGHS AS IT
SHOULD DO WELL WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS. FOR LOWS
USED A CONSENSUS AVERAGE OF MOS AND MODELS TO GET A BIT WARMER THAN
STRICT GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CIRRUS IF NOT MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WHETHER TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS START
TO BREAK IT DOWN AS THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
BACK TOWARDS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS DAY 7.  THIS SETS UP A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS
THE END OF DAY 7.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE HUMID AND UNSTABLE...SO WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS.
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION LATE DAY 7 WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE.

TWEAKED ALL BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY SUN-TUE
GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.  WEATHER DEPICTION AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY SCATTERED CU AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. .

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS FROM 15Z-01Z AND
LIGHT AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH

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