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000
FXUS63 KIND 011559
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1058 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES
AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
CENTRAL INDIANA. AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP AROUND MID-WEEK...THE BITTER
COLD CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1058 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

WITH THE MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDED SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW BACK IN
SOUTH OF I70 FOR A FEW HOURS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING HAS ALLOWED SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO DEVELOP BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF. THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO
ALL RAIN FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
EAST COULD SEE THE MIX EXTEND EVEN FURTHER NORTH. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES /WARNING AREA/ STILL LOOKING AT ALL SNOW...HEAVY
AT TIMES...AND DID NOT CHANGE AMOUNTS THERE. THE ADVISORY AREA COULD
SEE SOME MIX BUT THAT WAS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THOSE AMOUNTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S
SOUTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE WINTER STORM CURRENTLY
IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING A VAST AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THIS COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS EARLIER
HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS THAT WILL ENTER CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT BY THAT TIME TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN...MAKING
IT DIFFICULT FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS A RESULT...HAD TO
BRING THE RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL TIER OF COUNTIES AS
WELL...REDUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THAT
AREA...AND THUS RESULTING IN THE REMOVAL OF CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM ANY
HEADLINES. THE WARM AIR ALSO RESULTED IN DOWNGRADING SOME OF THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM A WARNING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE REMAINING COUNTIES STILL IN ADVISORY AREA CAN EXPECT 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY TOMORROW MORNING.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN LARGE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FOR DURATION OF EVENT. THERE WILL STILL BE CONCERN FOR
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AS WELL LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 20 MPH TONIGHT...GUSTING TO 35 MPH. BITTER COLD AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE AREA BY THAT POINT TOO...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS FROM -1 TO 9 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO
TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

SYSTEM WILL PUSH TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY MORNING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS
FOR MONDAY HAVE ALSO TRENDED WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE FRIGID THOUGH
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ACTUALLY AT THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT AND WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL BRING SNOW
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

A QUICK MOVING UPPER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION.
RAISED POPS SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING AS BOTH THE GEMNH AND 00Z EURO
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TWILL FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
ALSO GFS HAS IT WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH HALF.  ALL OF THE
MODELS ARE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS BEING ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER WITH
THIS 2ND SHORT WAVE AND PRECIP.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOME SNOW COVER THERE.   FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COLD...WHILE
SATURDAY IS DRY AND WARMER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MIXED
PRECIP WILL RETURN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 937 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...FEW CHANGES TO INTRODUCE PRECIP A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN ORIGINAL FORECAST. -SN BEING REPORTED AT HUF AND IND...AND
WILL BE SHORTLY AT LAF. WHILE -RA WILL CONTINUE AT BMG. A -RASN
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME THE PREDOMINANT WX AT IND
WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH IFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR OR LOWER BY MIDDAY AND THEN
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER WILL
MOVE TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS INDICATE LIFT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT WITH
LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE MOSTLY
SNOW AT KLAF AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT MOSTLY RAIN
AND KBMG. WITH MORE SNOW AT KLAF...FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LIFR
LATER TODAY.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY.  COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY
MID OR LATE EVENING.

EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ035>037-
039>043.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
038.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF/JH

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