Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190239
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

High pressure will keep dry weather over central Indiana into the
weekend, and warming temperatures through the weekend. A frontal
system will bring some chances for rain Saturday night through
Monday, with some potential for a wintry mix Monday night as
cooler more seasonable air moves back in behind a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

High pressure centered over the Gulf coast will keep skies clear
through the overnight. A tight pressure gradient across the area
will keep winds from dropping off too much. Warm advection will
continue tonight, so lows should be warmer than the last few days.
Leaned toward cooler end of guidance (upper teens) with recent
verification trends and still some snow cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Upper ridge of high pressure will keep conditions dry and high
pressure centered southeast of the area will keep a warm advection
pattern in place for the next few days. This will allow
temperatures to warm a few more degrees each day, with highs in
the mid 40s to around 50 by Sunday. All that warm advection will
bring a warm front near/through the area Saturday night and
Sunday, which will bring some chances for rain to central Indiana
during that time. High confidence in dry weather Friday through
Saturday morning, with medium confidence of light rain late
Saturday night into Sunday. High confidence in warming
temperatures throughout the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

The primary impact in the extended period will take place late
weekend into early next week as the region continues to be
influenced by the strong low pressure system set to track from the
central Plains into the Great Lakes. As is to be expected at this
stage...some model variance exists regarding strength and timing
of the system track but the overall confidence regarding progression
and impacts to central Indiana remains solid at this point.

Expect rain to become likely Sunday night into Monday ahead of the
associated cold front. Model soundings continue to highlight very
weak elevated instability early Monday...but confidence remains
low at this point as to whether this will translate into a few
rumbles of thunder over the area. Considering the depth of the low
pressure...expect windy and raw conditions Monday into Tuesday as
the system passes. Still likely to see some lingering moisture
present as the colder air arrives with rain mixing with or
changing over to light snow before ending on Tuesday.

The rest of the extended will be seasonable as overall upper
level flow is zonal. May see a few shots at light precipitation...
mainly in the form of light snow...as weak waves aloft track
quickly through the lower Great Lakes the middle of next week.
Otherwise expect mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 19/03Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 937 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Update...
Lowered winds a few knots at KIND, otherwise no changes.

Previous Discussion...
VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period
with high pressure over the region. The only threat will be low
level wind shear potential at times this evening and tonight and
again tomorrow evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...TDUD



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