Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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745 FXUS65 KABQ 100602 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1202 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A increased risk for flash flooding looks to unfold this evening across northeast and east central NM as higher moisture behind a backdoor front combined with a disturbance moving overhead will set the stage for widespread showers and storms along and east of the central mountain chain. Considerable burn scar flash flooding is expected across the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon this afternoon through Monday morning. Showers and storms will continue across northeast areas Monday with the low overhead. Additionally, some severe storms could be possible across eastern areas this evening and Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure then develops over the region Tuesday. A few showers and storms will still be possible across northeast NM Tuesday afternoon. High pressure intensifies overhead Wednesday and Thursday resulting in little if any storm coverage and extremely hot temperatures once again. Another disturbance moves across northern NM Friday bringing some showers and storms to northern areas with some stronger winds elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A weak Pacific low continues to approach from the southwest, with the upper level circulation currently moving into the Bootheel per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Meanwhile, the remaining mid level ridge is holding on across northern NM as evidenced by the slow and erratic movement of the limited convection across the northern mountains so far this afternoon. However, the upper level ridge is forecast to erode overnight and allow the Pacific low to continue to make northeastward progress toward northeast NM by Monday morning. The deformation aloft ahead of this approaching feature will allow deeper convection across north central and northeast NM to persist overnight, even as the low level upslope flow diminishes. However, once the lower boundary layer gets rain- cooled and all of the instability generated by daytime heating gets used, rainfall intensity will decrease overnight. 12z model solutions advertise impressive qpf still and will continue the Flash Flood Watch with no additions planned at this time. A marginal threat for severe storms persists as well, with the main threat area across the east central and southeast plains later this afternoon and early evening, although storm mode will favor clusters with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. A gusty east canyon wind is still anticipated later this evening into the middle RGV, but timing and speeds are uncertain due to dependence on convective outflow and/or cold pooling east of the Sandias/Manzanos. The upper low is forecast to spin over northeast NM Monday morning and then move southeast into the TX Panhandle Monday night. Good chances for showers and storms will persist across central and eastern NM as the upper low is slow to move out. Forcing associated with the ejecting upper low and opposing southeast low level flow will create an area of surface convergence over the southeast and east central plains Monday afternoon that could result in a quick shot at strong to severe storms before potential organization as the forcing shifts into the lower TX Panhandle and far west TX Monday evening. Temperatures will be much cooler Monday due to cloud cover and rain- cooling with highs forecast 10-15 degrees below normal across central and eastern NM. Areas of low stratus/fog may develop late Monday night across eastern NM, but kept fog out of the forecast at this time due to low forecast confidence in placement. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Temperatures heat back up Tuesday due to upper level high pressure redeveloping over the AZ/NM border at around 591 to 592 dm. Temperatures across most of the lower elevations will be back to the low to mid 90s with near triple digits across southern NM. Temperatures will be cooler and in the 80s across northeast NM due to some showers and storms developing in the afternoon from a trailing upper level trough on the backside of the departing upper low over the southern plains. The upper level high moves over the state and intensifies to 595 dm on Wednesday allowing temperatures to heat up even more. Widespread 90s are expected across lower elevations with Albuquerque and Farmington possibly getting to 100 degrees again. Socorro could get close to 105 and satisfying their Heat Advisory criteria. Even northeast NM will get back into the 90s due to southerly winds and higher upper level heights. The hot temperatures look to peak on Thursday as the high overhead intensifies a little more to 596 dm. Albuquerque and Farmington are forecast to reach the low 100s with mid to upper 100s possible across the lower RGV and southeast NM. Most of eastern plains could be close to or reach the century mark Thursday afternoon. Some mid level moisture ahead of a Pacific low moving into southern CA could allow for a few virga showers and dry storms to develop in the high terrain Thursday evening before sunset. The aforementioned Pacific low looks to weaken and open up as it moves towards the Four Corners Friday squashing the upper high south and east. This will help to cool temperatures a little areawide. Models are still struggling in the exact timing of the disturbance, with the GFS a touch faster than the ECMWF. Most ensembles agree in the upper level trough being over Arizona Friday afternoon with southerly winds ahead of it pulling some Gulf moisture into the state. The timing of the trough and when the drier westerly winds arrive will be critical for precipitation chances or critical fire weather conditions. Right now, ensembles are favoring stronger winds with possible critical fire weather conditions across western NM with higher moisture across north central and northeast NM resulting in some afternoon and evening showers and storms. The upper level trough moves through the state Friday night and exits into the Great Plains Saturday. Temperatures cool down a little further, closer to mid June averages, in it`s wake. The deterministic ECMWF is the slowest in exiting the upper trough resulting in another round of afternoon showers and storms over northeast NM, but most ensembles have the upper level trough exiting into the Great Plains Saturday afternoon with drier westerly flow in it`s wake resulting in little to any showers and storms across northeast NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Widespread shwrs with isold tstms persist across ern NM. With increasing stability overnight, do expect for currently present tstms to transition to shwrs in the next hour or so. This activity in ern NM has created a gap wind across the central valleys, where gusts around 35 kts are being observed at KABQ. An Airport Weather Warning remains in effect for KABQ until 10/07Z. The increase in moisture may create areas of FG overnight, especially along and east of the central mts. Shwrs and tstms will return tomorrow with coverage expanding wwd. Portions of ern NM will once again be party to the potential of severe storms in the aftn. Direct hits to terminals by shwrs may create lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys both tonight and tomorrow. Storm coverage will decrease quickly into the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A weak Pacific low will combine with increasing moisture behind a backdoor front to create good chances for soaking storms across central and eastern NM through Monday. Any convection from the Continental Divide westward will likely be dry or at least have a very small wetting footprint. An upper level ridge is forecast to follow from Tuesday through Thursday, with hot, dry and unstable conditions gradually working east across the area. Residual moisture will be sufficient for a limited round of wetting storms Tuesday afternoon/evening along/east of the central mountain chain, followed by an even more limited round Wednesday. Thursday will be the hottest, driest and most unstable day of the forecast cycle with a 595dam 500mb high directly overhead. A Pacific low is still forecast to approach Friday and move over Friday night through Saturday. The exact track of this feature will determine whether impacts favor critical fire weather conditions across western NM on Friday, which is still uncertain. Latest models are showing good chances for wetting storms associated with this feature Fri/Sat across north central and northeast NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 85 55 94 / 20 30 5 5 Dulce........................... 49 76 42 89 / 30 50 20 20 Cuba............................ 52 76 49 86 / 50 40 10 20 Gallup.......................... 50 82 44 92 / 20 20 0 5 El Morro........................ 51 79 49 86 / 30 20 5 5 Grants.......................... 50 81 46 91 / 30 30 10 10 Quemado......................... 51 81 50 88 / 20 20 5 5 Magdalena....................... 56 80 56 88 / 30 40 10 10 Datil........................... 52 79 53 87 / 20 30 10 10 Reserve......................... 44 86 45 94 / 20 10 5 5 Glenwood........................ 58 91 62 99 / 10 10 0 5 Chama........................... 46 67 42 81 / 40 80 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 57 70 56 82 / 70 70 20 40 Pecos........................... 52 69 52 82 / 90 80 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 65 45 77 / 70 70 30 50 Red River....................... 42 59 42 72 / 80 80 40 50 Angel Fire...................... 41 61 38 74 / 80 70 30 50 Taos............................ 51 70 45 84 / 60 70 30 40 Mora............................ 47 68 47 80 / 80 80 20 50 Espanola........................ 58 73 53 90 / 60 60 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 56 68 55 86 / 80 70 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 71 54 89 / 80 60 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 76 60 92 / 70 50 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 77 59 94 / 60 40 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 79 59 96 / 60 40 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 78 60 94 / 60 40 10 10 Belen........................... 58 83 55 96 / 50 30 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 61 78 59 94 / 60 50 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 57 81 54 95 / 50 30 10 5 Corrales........................ 59 78 59 95 / 60 40 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 57 82 56 95 / 50 30 10 5 Placitas........................ 60 74 59 89 / 70 60 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 61 79 59 94 / 60 40 10 10 Socorro......................... 62 86 60 99 / 30 30 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 73 55 84 / 80 60 10 10 Tijeras......................... 55 74 55 87 / 70 60 10 10 Edgewood........................ 54 75 51 88 / 80 70 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 77 47 89 / 80 60 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 51 71 50 85 / 90 60 20 20 Mountainair..................... 53 77 51 88 / 70 50 10 5 Gran Quivira.................... 51 78 52 87 / 60 50 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 58 83 59 93 / 50 30 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 51 77 54 85 / 50 40 20 20 Capulin......................... 52 68 49 80 / 80 60 20 40 Raton........................... 51 69 50 84 / 70 60 20 40 Springer........................ 52 71 52 86 / 80 60 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 50 67 51 81 / 90 70 20 50 Clayton......................... 56 72 56 85 / 70 60 30 30 Roy............................. 54 70 53 82 / 90 60 30 40 Conchas......................... 57 76 57 88 / 100 60 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 56 75 55 85 / 90 60 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 57 77 57 89 / 90 60 40 20 Clovis.......................... 60 78 60 89 / 100 60 60 20 Portales........................ 60 79 59 90 / 100 60 50 20 Fort Sumner..................... 60 79 58 90 / 80 50 30 10 Roswell......................... 65 85 66 98 / 70 40 20 10 Picacho......................... 57 81 57 92 / 60 50 20 20 Elk............................. 54 81 54 93 / 40 60 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NMZ214-215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...12