130
FXUS64 KLUB 150539
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows evidence of an upper-level
shortwave trough located over the Four Corners region. This feature
is expected to move eastward into the Texas Panhandle by Saturday
morning, causing difluence aloft as it passes over the CWA. This
afternoon, southeasterly surface flow has sustained dewpoints in the
low 60s across the South Plains and upper 60s to low 70s in the
Rolling Plains. Thunderstorms have already begun to fire in eastern
New Mexico due to upslope flow, but weak steering flow should keep
this convection out of the forecast area until the evening hours.
The environment by this evening in the far southwest TXPH is
favorable for sustaining these thunderstorms. 0Z soundings there
show minimal inhibition and CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, with an
inverted-v signature in the boundary layer. Thus, storms that move
into the forecast area this evening and overnight carry the
potential to be severe, with the most likely hazard being severe
wind gusts up to 60 mph. Weak steering flow also implies a heavy
rainfall potential with these storms.

Low temperatures tomorrow morning will range from the low 60s to the
low 70s, with the higher lows across the Rolling Plains. Saturday
should be similar to today`s weather, with south-southeastward
surface flow keeping dewpoints in the 60s and high temperatures in
the 90s. A slight chance of thunderstorms returns near the end of
the short term period for the northern South Plains and far
southeastern TXPH as surface moisture and difluence aloft create a
similar environment to this evening. More information is provided in
the long term discussion below.

/DF

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The long term forecast remains on track this afternoon with very
warm temperatures continuing through the period. An upper level
shortwave trough will begin to scoot across the central High Plains
Saturday afternoon from the Desert Southwest region, allowing for
increased thunderstorm chances. Thereafter, upper level ridging will
quickly return overhead influencing warm and dry conditions Sunday
and Monday. By Tuesday, a deepening low across the Intermountain
West will begin to push the upper level ridge eastward out of the
region with cooler and wetter conditions following.

Decent moisture return is expected Saturday as low to mid level
southerly flow advects gulf moisture into the region, evident by a
700mb theta-e ridge axis extending along a line from Childress to
Denver City. This in addition to the passing shortwave trough aloft
will lead to increased chances for thunderstorm development across
the higher terrain in eastern NM Saturday afternoon moving eastward
into the FA by the evening hours. Storms may become strong to severe
given MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg, effective bulk shear above 40
knots, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Localized heavy rainfall may
also lead to flash flooding with PWATS around 1.25" and slow storm
motions. Precipitation chances should begin to diminish around
midnight as the trough ejects northeast into the Upper Midwest
region.

Quiet and warm temperatures will follow through at least mid-week as
the upper level ridge influences increased thickness values across
the FA. 850 mb temperatures around 25C to 27C suggests temperatures
in the upper 90s with even a triple digit temperature not out of the
question given clear skies and southerly winds. Thunderstorm chances
begin to return Tuesday, as the low to our northwest begins to
deepen and a dryline sets up across the FA. ALbeit chances do not
look great Tuesday afternoon with NBM coming in below mentionable in
the latest run. However, given the upper level pattern and the
dryline an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Convective
potential becomes a bit more tricky into mid week as the upper level
trough continues to deepen and upper level flow increases and shifts
out of the southwest. Ensembles suggest rainfall chances beginning
Wednesday and remaining across the FA through Friday. Given this is
day 6 and beyond we have opted to run with NBM mentionable PoPs each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Thunderstorms are approaching from the west at KLBB and KPVW.
However, it is still uncertain whether or not they will make it
there and thus confidence is not high enough to include in the
TAFs. Otherwise, VFR and generally light winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...19