Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
461 FXUS64 KAMA 161130 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 630 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 - Low chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present across the Western Panhandles through Friday. - Better chances of widespread activity return this weekend thanks to a new cold front moving in. - Cooler and more active weather continues to trend for next week with current highs expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 A quick look at present radar and satellite tonight has seen the CAMs continue to struggle with the actual position of the cold front with all of them having much further north than it actually is. This further south placement has lead to the Panhandles being much stabler than initially expected which has seen confidence in any strong thunderstorms developing overnight diminish quite a bit. Still there is potential for the front to retreat a little further north with present radar even seeing a weak MCV just our south. If these conditions can hold then a few scatter storms cant be fully ruled out. Either way present meso-anlysis alongside the 00Z sounding is still suggesting PWATs upwards of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which is more than enough of even a small storm to produce heavy to torrential rainfall. Moving into tomorrow, however, shows a much less active day in terms of weather with most models seeing the upper-level high regain enough strengthen to force the Panhandles into southerly upper-level flow. This southerly upper-level flow will unfortunately cut the area off from much of the monsoonal moisture that is pushing across the Southwestern United States, in turn keeping most storms tomorrow over the mountains of Eastern New Mexico with only a 10 to 20 percent chance our far west sees anything. To add to this dry off, present CAMs are also indicating some negative theta-e advection across the Central and Eastern Panhandles at the 700mb early this morning which generally indicates more reinforcement of dry and stable conditions for those areas. This pattern looks to continue into Thursday, with all but our far west staying rather dry. Otherwise, we are still looking to get a small break from the heat with highs over the next two day in the mid 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 Present model agreement continues to see a new upper-level trough push into the Pacific Northwest early Friday with expectations to see it slowly propagate east across the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Plains this weekend. For us here in the Panhandles this trough will set the stage for better southwesterly flow and monsoonal moisture to return to the Panhandles. Initially on Friday, present agreement is not seeing to much activity with us having to rely on storms pushing of the mountains in Eastern New Mexico. However as the trough pushes further east over the weekend, most models do see our chances become more widespread thanks to another passing cold front. Much like the activity last night, these chances will heavily rely on when and how far south the front actually push, which means that present chance of showers can rapidly change over the next 24 hours. Regardless, present agreement has start to favor a more active outlook for next week with some models suggesting a series of upper-level trough push in from the West Coast. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs to stay in upper 80s to mid 90s through Friday, but have the potential to cool into the upper 70s to mid 80s with our more active weather this weekend and next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 Mentions of VFR ceilings at KDHT and KGUY have been removed due to low clouds setting up further north of both TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail through the rest of the 12Z TAF period. Thunderstorm chances are too low today to make mentions at any site. Instead, FM groups today are for breezy wind conditions at all sites this afternoon. These southerly winds should die down by the evening. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...55