469
FXUS64 KAMA 191054
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

High winds and critical fire weather continue continue to impact
the combined Panhandles today.

Some relief in the RH`s is occurring but are expected to fall to
near 20 percent again this afternoon with winds possibly staying
elevated into the early evening hours.

Fire weather conditions remain possible throughout the remainder
of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

As of this writing an upper level low center is located in far SE
CO and is moving into SW KS. An associated cold front has already
moved into the northwestern combined Panhandles with Boise City,
OK gusting to 58 mph thus far. High winds behind this front with
gusts upwards of 60 to 65 mph are still anticipated during the
overnight hours. An extension in time has been made for much of
the combined Panhandles, especially the northeastern two thirds
at this time. Thankfully, RH values behind this front are
increasing to 80 to 90 percent as seen in Cimarron County at this
time. This will continue to be the case as much of the combined
Panhandles see RH values increase to at least 50 percent on the
low end. This is thanks to some higher Td in the 30s behind the
front and temperatures dropping quite a bit. These higher Tds are
expected to swing in and swing out by sunrise with RH values
expected to fall back to near 20 to 30 percent for this afternoon.
This may feed into a short period of 3 to 4 hours of critical
fire weather once again, mainly in the eastern combined
Panhandles.

As winds finally become calm after midnight tonight, that along
with clear skies should allow tomorrow`s low to be well below
freezing. Tomorrow afternoon, winds return to the southwest and
H85 temperatures rise to hear 10 to 11 degrees C. This should
allow temperatures to warm back into the 60s for a high. At the
same time a surface trough to the west will bring in some lower
Tds in the single digits to the west and low teens to the east.
Therefore, RH values are expected to drop to 10 percent or less in
the west an coincide with some of the breeziest winds. Elevated
(east) to Critical (west) fire weather conditions are expected to
impact the FA once again. With winds staying up overnight above 10
mph and the warm H85 temperatures much of the area should stay
above freezing going into Friday morning. Lows expected in the 30s
to the west and 40s to the east for the Thu night period.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A bit of a temperature roller coaster is expected through the
weekend. First, a cold front early Fri morning will keep highs in
the 60s Fri afternoon with northerly breezy winds. Then on Sat,
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected to return with
southwesterly winds before another cold front brings northerly
winds and highs in the 60s back for Sun. Mon, some highs in the
70s return to the southern combined Panhandles.

No moisture is forecast through the extended with moisture lacking
with the systems that are bringing the cold fronts Fri and Sun.
Sun is the only day where Min RH values are not forecast to drop
below 15 percent, and may be the only day where not even elevated
fire weather conditions are present depending on if the winds stay
on the lighter side below 20 mph. Elevated to critical fire
weather conditions are expected Thu through Sat.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through this 12Z TAF period.
The main concern will be high winds through about 18Z, maybe later
for KGUY, with gusts in the 40 to 52 kt range. Winds should
diminisih after 21Z, becoming calm some time after 00Z Thu.
Between 00Z and 12Z Thu winds should then gradually turn from
northerly back to the west maybe even southwest before picking
back up to above 10 kts.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Despite some recovering RH values overnight, the higher Tds behind
the front are expected to swing in and swing out fairly quickly
with the upper level system bringing light showers, mainly
flurries and sprinkles. When temperatures start to rise during the
day Wed RH values will then fall with some areas seeing RHs as low
as 15 to 20 percent. With such high winds expected to stick around
a period of critical fire weather conditions is expected this
afternoon with the current Red Flag Warning running until then.

Thursday, much warmer temperatures aloft return to the area with
a surface trough dropping Tds into the single digits to low teens.
This will allow RH values to fall to just below 10 percent in the
west on Thu, some breezy 20 foot winds combined with the dry
conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions to the west
and elevated to the eastern combined Panhandles for Thu
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  26  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  50  22  66  38 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              46  21  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  53  27  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              52  25  66  36 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  51  25  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               53  29  64  41 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 48  21  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  48  21  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                51  24  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                50  26  65  42 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   51  27  64  40 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                53  29  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              55  29  65  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ001>020-
     317.

     High Wind Warning until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ001>005-
     009-010-015.

     High Wind Warning until noon CDT today for TXZ006>008-012>014-
     018>020.

     Wind Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ011-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ001>003.

     High Wind Warning until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36