Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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509 ACUS11 KWNS 072203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072202 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-080000- Mesoscale Discussion 1192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeast NE...northeast KS...and far northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 072202Z - 080000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the area in the next hour or so. Primary concerns are large hail (some 2+ inches) and damaging winds (some 75+ mph). DISCUSSION...Several intense semi-discrete supercells are tracking southeastward across central NE this afternoon. These storms are evolving in an environment characterized by moderate surface-based instability and 45-55 kt of deep-layer shear (with ample clockwise hodograph curvature) per regional VWP data. Over the next several hours, this activity will generally continue tracking southeastward along the eastern edge of a northwest/southeast-oriented instability gradient. While downstream cloud coverage has stunted diurnal heating in some areas, temperatures have generally warmed into the mid/upper 80s amid middle 60s dewpoints. This should continue to support surface-based inflow as storms continue southeastward into tonight. Given the aforementioned wind profile, a semi-discrete supercell mode may persist initially, with large hail (some 2+ inches) and damaging winds possible. With time, a strengthening low-level jet may encourage upscale growth into severe larger supercell clusters and/or bowing segments, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (some 75+ mph). Evolution into a consolidated MCS is still unclear at this time, though this scenario would yield a greater wind risk. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for parts of the area to cover this risk. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39919977 40389973 40899917 41189815 41319711 41109622 40469527 39999476 39119458 38259524 38049619 38049767 38299839 38969918 39919977