Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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321 FXUS63 KDDC 241025 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 525 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds behind a cold front will gradually subside daytime Friday. - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon along and east of US-283, with all severe hazards possible. - More widespread precipitation chances exist middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 KDDC radar observations early Friday morning show a cold front moving through the far southeast zones, with strong northerly winds sustained in the 30-40 mph range gusting to 50 mph within the post-frontal zone. These strong winds will not last long, beginning to weaken around sunrise as surface high pressure edges its way into the central plains, and reaching 10-15 mph by late morning/early afternoon. The remainder of the day Friday will be quite pleasant, with clear skies, a cool north breeze, and afternoon highs in the mid 70s north to low 80s south. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning, the subtropical jet wave train reloads once again as an upper level trough digs its way into the western CONUS by 12Z Saturday. As this wave begins to eject onto the High Plains during the day, lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO will quickly reestablish moist southerly flow across the southern to central plains ahead of a dryline that will sharpen and mix east to near US-283 by mid-afternoon. A modest cap will be in place (+9-11C at 700-mb), however DCVA ahead of the ejecting trough should provide sufficient forcing to support at least isolated thunderstorms along the dryline. Richer boundary layer moisture will likely remain displaced to our southeast over OK, but upper 50s dewpoints, and perhaps some low 60s in our far east zones, will combine with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s to foster around 1000 J/Kg of CAPE amidst 50-60 kts of bulk shear. These factors will support a supercellular storm mode, with large hail the primary severe hazard. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially given the impressive low-level curvature in forecast hodographs, but this will only exist across the far east/southeast zones where the richer moisture will reside. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Saturday night, medium range ensembles agree a cold front will move through southwest KS as the surface low follows the ejecting upper level low into the Ozarks/Midwest. It`s possible showers/thunderstorms along this boundary will skim areas from Wakeeney to Medicine Lodge, but NBM probability of QPF > 0.01" in the 20-40% range across those areas indicate this scenario is unlikely. Otherwise, northwesterly winds behind the front will usher in slightly cooler air daytime Sunday, with afternoon highs reaching the low 80s north to upper 80s/low 90s south. Early next work week, GEFS and ECMWF EPS agree shortwave upper level ridging will take shape over the western CONUS, moving east with time. This pattern suggests warm, dry conditions are likely with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday as weak vorticity lobes crest the shortwave ridge and combine with moist southeasterly upslope flow, and this is reflected by GEFS and ECMWF EPS probability of QPF > 0.1" increasing into the 50-70% range for areas along and south of US-50. Precipitation chances may continue through the end of the long term period as the upper level shortwave ridge passes overhead allowing southwesterly flow to return, but GEFS/ECMWF EPS probability of QPF > 0.1" equal to or below 50% implies appreciable uncertainty. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Northerly winds behind last night`s cold front will tick up slightly for a few hours this morning, but will weaken to aob 12 kts by early afternoon, and continue to weaken to light and variable by 23Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...Springer