864
FXUS65 KABQ 230815
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
215 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Temperatures will warm up today, but will still be just shy of
normal for late September. A few stray showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out this afternoon, mainly over the northern
mountains of New Mexico, but otherwise mostly dry and tranquil
weather is forecast through the rest of the week. Temperatures
will warm each subsequent day of the week through Thursday,
reaching 5 to 10 degrees above average by that time with only
small day-to-day changes thereafter. Mostly light to moderate
winds are forecast through the week too, but some gusty winds will
spill through the gaps and canyons of the central mountain chain
Tuesday evening, and some gusts may reach 25 to 35 mph for a few
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today should be another quiet and seasonable Fall day. There is a very
low chance (<10%) that patchy fog develops in the eastern plains early
this morning before sunrise. Confidence is slightly higher for northern
mountain valleys, such as the Moreno Valley for a very short period
right around sunrise. Temperatures will moderate today, especially in
the east where they will run anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees higher than
yesterday. However, highs will still be slightly below seasonal
averages in most areas. A shortwave grazing the northern mountains
could generate a few showers and even a strike of lightning or two near
the CO border, but impacts will be minimal.

Ridging will quickly shift eastward over New Mexico on Tuesday,
allowing temps to climb a few more degrees everywhere. At the same
time, a trough will dig into the plains, sending a backdoor front into
the northeast corner of the state Tuesday afternoon. Due to the timing
of the front`s arrival, it will struggle to move uphill in eastern NM.
There will be little sensible weather change other than a wind shift to
the east and a few degrees of cooling in its wake.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Into Tuesday evening the upper low over the MO river valley will
shove surface high pressure into the southern plains, including
eastern NM. This will bring and easterly wind component across
that half of the state which could lead to an evening surge
through the gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain.
Vulnerable locations such as eastern ABQ could observe some gusty
conditions through the evening before speeds recede after
midnight.

Into the daytime Wednesday, the high amplitude dome of high
pressure will build more directly over NM, CO and surrounding
states with heights escalating toward 588-591 decameters at 500
mb. This will keep a light wind field aloft while light surface
winds veer southerly in eastern NM. Temperatures will gain a
couple degrees in most locations under the rising pressure
heights.

The ridge will retain its strength into Thursday and Friday, but
it will retrograde westward and more directly over the Four
Corners states. This will keep temperatures reaching above average
in most locations (generally by 5 to 10 degrees above in most
western and central zones). The former MO river valley low will
remain inland doing a dance with a potential ConUS-bound tropical
cyclone over the Gulf coast states. This could reintroduce
surface pressure rises over the southern plains again, potentially
drawing another easterly wind into eastern and portions of
central NM late Friday. A weak shortwave could drop southward on
the eastern periphery of the ridge Friday, and as this feature
moves out of CO and into NM it looks to provide enough mid level
moisture for high-based afternoon cumulus that could yield
scattered virga showers, mainly over the mountains.

The ridge will build back over NM this weekend, retaining its
strength on Saturday, but starting to weaken slightly into Sunday.
Sufficient mid level moisture for high-based cumulus and possible
afternoon virga showers will be about the only impactful weather
of note, other than the warmer than average temperatures (still
mainly in western and central zones).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Satellite imagery shows a patch of MVFR cigs along the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and another smaller area along
and east of the south-central mountains. BKN ceilings are expected
to persist for the next few hours, breaking up after 10Z as winds
veer and turn around to the south. There is a low chance (10-20%)
that patchy fog develops in the eastern plains between 09Z and
sunrise, with higher confidence (40-60%) in northern mountain
valleys, including the Moreno Valley. A few sprinkles are possible
in the northern mountains tomorrow, but it will be an otherwise
quiet day with mostly clear skies and light winds (<10KT).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A few showers and even a storm or two are possible this afternoon in
the northern mountains, but that`s the only reasonable chance of rain
for the next 5 days. Ridging shifts overhead Tuesday and remains in
place in the vicinity of New Mexico through the end of the workweek. A
backdoor front will intrude from the east Tuesday afternoon, with
little sensible weather change other than a slight cooldown and
increase in humidity. Another weak backdoor front may enter from the
east on Friday afternoon. Moisture behind the front could generate
isolated showers and storms over the high terrain this weekend, but
confidence is low. Temperatures will rise above seasonal averages
Tuesday and remain there through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  48  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  35  78  40 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  72  44  77  45 /  10   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  76  41  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  73  44  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  76  41  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  75  43  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  75  51  78  51 /   5   5   0   0
Datil...........................  75  45  77  44 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  80  44  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  84  55  86  53 /   0   5   5   0
Chama...........................  67  38  72  40 /  20   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  69  50  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  70  48  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  67  43  71  43 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  58  38  62  35 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  64  30  68  24 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  71  38  75  40 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  69  40  72  41 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  77  45  82  49 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  71  50  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  75  47  80  48 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  57  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  50  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  79  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  81  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  80  51  85  52 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  80  47  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  81  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  81  49  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  77  53  82  53 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  80  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  83  55  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  74  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  74  44  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  76  40  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  71  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  74  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  75  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  53  82  56 /   5   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  72  50  75  43 /  10   0  10   5
Capulin.........................  71  44  69  41 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  75  42  75  41 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  76  43  77  42 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  72  43  75  43 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  76  53  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  73  46  76  48 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  79  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  77  48  81  52 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  78  50  82  50 /   0   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  79  56  85  55 /   0   0  10   5
Portales........................  80  55  86  55 /   0   0  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  79  52  85  54 /   5   0   5   5
Roswell.........................  83  59  91  61 /   0   0   5  10
Picacho.........................  78  52  84  54 /   5   0   5   5
Elk.............................  78  50  81  52 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16