282
AXNT20 KNHC 121651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over some portions of the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, parts of the Florida Peninsula, and the western Atlantic:

Abundant tropical moisture is surging northward from the western
Caribbean, across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, also over
portions of Florida, and across the adjacent western Atlantic
waters. This moisture is practically to the southeast of a surface
trough that extends from west-central Florida to a broad and
elongated area of low pressure (Invest AL90). A surface trough
continues from this area of low pressure southwestward to eastern
Bay of Campeche, where numerous scattered convection is depicted.
In addition, upper- level diffluent flow present across the
region is helping to support clusters of disorganized scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms that extend from 22N,
northeastward across the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Straits of Florida to along and over parts of Florida. This
activity also reaches into the western Atlantic west of 75W.
Cloud to surface lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low
visibility are ongoing within this convective activity over these
areas. The shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue across the region through Fri. Mariners transiting these
regions should exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and
forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for specific
local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from
03.5N to 12N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
convection exists from 03N to 12N between the wave axis and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36.5W from
02N to 14N, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant
convection is depicted at the moment in association with this
wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W south of
13N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are near the northern tip of the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78.5W south
of 14N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is becoming
ill defined as it encounters low to middle-level southeast wind
flow surging into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are depicted from 13N to 09N between
74W and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N17W southwestward to
10N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 06.5N35W and from 06N39W
to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 05N to 08N between the west coast of Africa and 18W. Similar
activity is from 05N to 08N between 49W and 58.5W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
heavy rainfall over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from northeast Florida to southeastern
Louisiana and westward from there to inland Texas near
Houston/Galveston area. Elsewhere, a trough extends from central
Florida south-southwestward to the broad and elongated area of low
pressure described above under Special Features. The trough
continues from the low southwestward to 24N87W, and to the
the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle generally
variable winds are found across the basin, except for moderate to
locally fresh southeast to south winds between the western tip of
Cuba and the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in
the range of 2 to 4 ft. Hazy conditions are over the SW Gulf due
to ongoing agricultural fires are in Mexico.

For the forecast, the aforementioned elongated area of low
pressure is forecast to move northeastward offshore of the U.S.
Southeast coast tonight through late week. As a result, unsettled
weather in the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms with
gusty winds will persist over the eastern Gulf through Fri night
as a trough lingers over the Gulf. Hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Mexico will continue to affect the western
Gulf reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times through at least
the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a broad area of low
pressure could form over the weekend across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow
development early next week while the system moves slowly
westward or west-northwestward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure, lower
pressures in the deep tropics, and the trough of low pressure
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is resulting in moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds over most of the basin, with the
exception of the central basin, where winds are fresh to strong.
Seas range from 7 to 9 ft over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6
ft elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some
areas of the northwestern Caribbean and from just south of central
Cuba to near 15N.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the area combined
with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Thu night. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected
over the northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of
low pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue
across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through the rest of
the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists across the
region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information about the heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from low pressure of 1014 mb that is
north of the area near 32N76W southwestward to 31N80W and to
inland northern Florida. Meanwhile, unsettled weather in the form
of numerous showers and thunderstorms, with locally gusty winds
and higher seas, are over most of the western part of the forecast
waters as well as inland some sections of central and South
Florida and Straits of Florida as upper-level disturbances
continue to move from W to E along and near the stationary front
in combination with additional moisture being channeled eastward
across the Florida peninsula from the broad and elongated area of
low pressure that is over Florida. A surface trough supported by
an upper-level low is analyzed from near 29N37W to 18N46.5W.
Overcast mostly mid-level clouds with embedded isolated showers
and thunderstorms are noted from 22N to 29N between 37W and 45W.
A weak trough is from 21N51W to 17N56W. No significant convection
is noted with the trough. Another trough extends from 30N59W to
21N56W. No significant convection is depicted with the trough. A
1021 mb high center is near 30N63W.

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb located well north of the
discussion area in the vicinity of the Azores has an associated
ridge that reaches southwestward to the central Bahamas. The
pressure gradient between this ridge, the 1014 mb low just north
of the area and the stationary front off the southeastern U.S.
coast supports fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of
27N between 74W and 80W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 7 ft.
The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence
of the gradient related to the 1034 mb Azores high, which is
supporting mainly fresh to localized strong northeast winds
between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. South of
the ridge, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are over the
tropical Atlantic waters, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Saharan Air
dominates the lower to middle atmosphere across the Atlantic from
about 10N to 20N and roughly between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, an elongated area of low pressure over
the Florida peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are expected
to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is
possible while the system moves northeastward offshore of the U.S.
Southeast coast tonight through late week. Unsettled weather in
the form of numerous showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds
and higher seas, are over most of the western part of the forecast
waters W of 70W. Expect for little change with this convective
activity into the end of the week. Fresh to strong southerly winds
are expected over the western Atlantic ahead of this system
during the next couple of days.

$$
KRV