835
FXUS64 KOUN 311943
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
243 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

This Evening: Pleasant/low-impact weather is expected for many this
afternoon and evening, though an isolated shower or storm cannot
be ruled out. A remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV)
continues to drift across northeastern Oklahoma early this
afternoon. With our area in the subsident `zone` of this feature,
additional precipitation chances are very low, though non-zero
for far eastern reaches of the forecast area. Further west, near
the 100th meridian, an axis of cumulus has emerged atop a notable
zone of moisture convergence. While also low odds (10-20%),
shower/storm development cannot be ruled out here through ~5-7 PM.
Otherwise, most areas will note a dry afternoon, with seasonable
temperatures (mid-70s to low-80s).

Overnight, previous convection across the High Plains is expected
to propagate southeastward towards western Oklahoma (after 2 AM).
Rather weak low-level flow and instability raise doubts on
maintained intensity into our area, though a limited wind and
heavy rainfall threat may ultimately develop from western
Oklahoma towards the Red River Valley early Saturday.

Saturday: At this update, expectation is for transition from widely
scattered morning precipitation towards mostly dry weather, though
some signal for scattered afternoon/evening storms is emerging. Low
(20-30%) precipitation chances will continue on the periphery of
any remnant/decaying cluster(s) of storms through ~midday. This
is most likely for southern into eastern zones. While most areas
are expected to remain dry into the afternoon/evening, recent
guidance has suggested potential for widely scattered thunderstorm
development late Saturday afternoon across portions of
central/northern Oklahoma in the vicinity of a modifying
boundary/moisture gradient. Should storms develop and sustain,
strong to occasionally severe storms may become a concern, with a
wind/hail/heavy rain risk. This potential will be closely followed
over coming updates.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Saturday Night/Sunday Morning: Potential for another round of late
evening/overnight severe weather is evident. A (subtle) lee wave
passage is forecast to yield widespread diurnal convective
development across the High Plains on Saturday. A majority of CAM
members highlight potential for an organized cluster of storms
across western/northern Oklahoma by early Sunday morning. With
stronger low-level flow/mass response/instability currently
progged, at least occasional severe weather outcomes are expected
with this activity. Damaging wind gusts would likely be the main
concern, along with some potential for hail. We will also monitor
for localized flooding concern, especially if axis of movement
trends towards areas where heavier totals have occurred over the
past 5-7 days (i.e. southern Oklahoma/north Texas).

Rest of The Period: Gradual transition towards more prolonged drier
weather is expected. As has been the case at past updates, grand
ensemble guidance is keying in on the return of western US upper
ridging towards the middle to end of the next work week. A few
continued chances for storm clusters are possible through Wednesday,
though with the upper pattern in transition, highest odds will
continue shifting further north each day/round. Seasonable
(upper-80s to 90s temperatures) and mainly dry weather is
expected by the midweek.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A deck of stratus continues to slowly erode from west to east
early this afternoon. MVFR/IFR ceilings remain in central and
northern Oklahoma. They may hold on at PNC and SWO until sunset.
Otherwise, a brief break with clear skies is expected before
another round of stratus overspreads the area late tonight with
ceilings dropping to near 1,000 feet again. Winds will remain very
light and precipitation chances will be low.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  85  68  85 /  10  20  20  40
Hobart OK         64  86  67  86 /  20  20  30  40
Wichita Falls TX  66  86  70  87 /  20  30  20  30
Gage OK           60  87  64  88 /  40  30  50  30
Ponca City OK     62  84  67  86 /  10  20  20  30
Durant OK         65  85  70  87 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...04