Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170326
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
926 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Update issued to cover a few minor temp changes from latest obs.
Overall forecast is in great shape. CWA will continue to see
mostly clear conditions as a veil of mid/high clouds continues to
stream thru the region overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Latest upper air data shows a smaller scale short wave trough
moving over a short wave ridge over the Central Plains. At the
surface southeast winds were light to breezy. A stationary front
was located from northwest to southeast over the middle of the
forecast area.

Tonight the winds will become light by midnight and the stationary
front will be pushed to the west.

Tuesday the warm front will move back across the forecast area
during the day, with a cold front moving in from the west by the
evening. Very dry air will accompany the warm front across the
forecast area. The warm temperatures and low dew points will cause
the relative humidity to fall to less than 15% for much of the
forecast area. See fire weather section for further information.
As the cold front moves in the potential for high wind gusts
increases. The very strong winds will create some blowing dust.

During the evening the very strong winds will move east across the
forecast area. Currently looks like the highest gusts may occur
for locations east of Highway 25. The threat for blowing dust will
extend into the evening.

Regarding the high wind potential, have high enough confidence to
issue a watch for the entire forecast area. Based on the latest
data, have higher confidence of high winds occurring east of
Highway 25 where the low level jet will be the strongest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The active upper pattern continues through the extended period with
the first vigorous shortwave trough exiting the region Tuesday night
followed by upper ridging.  The next major system to impact the area
will begin to be felt Thursday night as a closed upper low tracks
from southern Nevada and emerges over the Southern Plains over the
weekend. This system will be the dominant weather-maker through
Saturday with widespread moderate precipitation, mostly in the form
of rain.

The first system exiting the area late Tuesday and Tuesday night
will generate a band of strong winds in its wake.  A High Wind Watch
has been posted over the entire area from midday Tuesday through
midnight with patchy blowing dust possible.  Wednesday into Thursday
morning look settled as upper ridging generates a surface high which
ridges down from the Northern Plains. Both days look settled with
mild temperatures in the 60s.

Starting Thursday night, light rain will develop and continue
through Friday morning, followed by more widespread and heavier
amounts later Friday into Saturday moving from west to east. The
EC/GFS have been in fairly good agreement on the speed and location
of this system.  High precipitable water values combined with the
slow-moving upper system will generate enough precipitation to help
alleviate dry soils and developing drought conditions, especially in
our southern counties. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep highs
in the 40s on Saturday.

At this time it appears the vast majority of the precipitation will
be in the form of rain, with rain mixing with and changing to snow
in the west and northwest late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Any snow amount are expected to be light. Total liquid precipitation
Thursday night through Saturday night will be in the 1-2 inch range.

Upper ridging occurs Sunday into Monday with dry weather expected
and high temperatures slowly climbing back into the 60s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 512 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period w/ scattered
mid and high clouds. Main issue will be the winds in the latter
portion of the forecast. Expecting SSE winds 10-20kts thru 17z
Tuesday...then SW 15-25kts becoming WNW up to 35-45kts by 21z as
boundary pushes thru the area. LLWS 06z-09z 170@40kts and 14z-17z
250@30kts.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions for the forecast period with
scattered low clouds and broken mid ceiling around BKN120-150.
From 11z-14z Tuesday...MVFR with BKN015. Main issue will be the
winds in the latter portion of the forecast. Expecting ESE
10-15kts thru 20z Tuesday...then SE 20-30kts. By 23z...WNW
25-35kts as boundary pushes thru the area. LLWS 07z-11z
160@35kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Light south winds will turn to the southwest then the northwest and
quickly increase from west to east through the day and into the
evening. The opportunity for gusts of 60 MPH will occur as the winds
turn to the northwest in the late afternoon and evening. Locations
east of Highway 25 could have gusts as high as 65 MPH in the evening.

Confidence is on the low side regarding how far north the critical
fire weather conditions will extend, thus the fire weather watch.
Added another group of counties to the north side of the red flag
warning. Even though relative humidities will not fall to 15% for
some of the counties in the forecast area, the very strong winds and
dry fuels will create explosive fire growth.

Regarding the recent snow, there is quite a bit of bare ground due to
the high winds accompanying the snow. There has also been quite a bit
of melting the last couple of days. Any fuels that are out of the
snow cover and wet today will likely dry out quickly tomorrow.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for KSZ002-015.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
     CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001-013-014-027>029-041-042.

CO...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ252>254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for NEZ079.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JTL



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