Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1114 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Issued at 721 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Update to forecast for minor temps tweaks based off of latest
regional obs. Overall...forecast is in good shape with high thin
veil of clouds providing the area pcldy skies...and temps
trending down nicely since sunset with a current range of the mid
30s thru the mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Tonight-Monday night...surface high resides over the eastern parts
of the forecast area tonight where light winds, generally clear sky
and low dewpoints favor the possibility of reaching record lows in
the upper teens (see climate section below). Further west southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph will allow for a bit milder readings in the mid
20s to around 30. As mentioned in previous forecast some freezing
fog/mist possible across the northeast and eastern counties due to
the light winds and near 100 percent humidity.

For Monday an upper level ridge axis moves over the area ahead of a
storm system across the west. At the surface pressure gradient
increases supporting southeast winds sustained in the 10 to 20 mph
range...highest along the CO/KS border where gusts to 30 mph
possible. 850mb temperatures warm 15F to 18F across the area
supporting highs in the upper 50s to low 70s.

The upper ridge axis moves east of the area Monday night ahead of
the west coast system which is approaching the Continental Divide.
Low temperatures generally in the 30s. the base of the upper trough approaches the
western/southwestern half or so of the forecast area during the day
a warm front lifts northeast bisecting the area from northwest to
southeast. Pinpointing where the warm front will exist two days away
is often difficult but will dictate critical parameters including
temperature, dewpoint, wind, etc...all needed for fire weather
concerns. Any speeding up or slowing down of the warm front and
upper trough will impact all the previously mentioned parameters.

For now per coordination with Dodge City office will issue a Red
Flag Warning for locations generally west and south of a line from
Flagler to Goodland to Russell Springs.

Have also continued mention of blowing dust across the western half
to 1/3 of the area both behind the warm front and with the cold

Currently have high temperatures in the low 70s west and north to
the low 80s far south.

Should have windy conditions during the night but exactly how high
is the question. NAM model showing very impressive 3 hour pressure
rises up to 17mb while the GFS is a bit lower and for shorter
duration. Could see some light wraparound precipitation generally
along and north of the interstate. Low temperatures in the upper
20s/low 30s west to low 40s far east.

Wednesday...dry weather expected and cooler (but close to normal)
with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and breezy to windy northwest

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Warm and dry conditions on Thursday. Daily highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s. Thursday evening, a low pressure system will
move over the area bringing gusty winds, and rain showers Friday.
As the cold air builds into the area, rain on Friday will
transition to mixed rain and snow showers Friday night into
Saturday morning. After sunrise, rain and snow showers will switch
back to rainfall mid-morning Saturday. There is a bit of a break
with the system Saturday afternoon, but as of right now, there
appears to be some instability in the area leaving precip in until
Sunday morning. Expecting in the next day or two to get a
solidified response from guidance on the duration of this system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period w/ scattered
high clouds. Winds...SSE around 5-15kts...gusts to 25kts from
16z-23z Monday.

For KMCK...mainly VFR conditions with scattered high clouds.
Period of MVFR skies around BKN015 and 4sm in fog from 10z-14z
Monday. Winds...Light/variable thru 14z...then SE around


Issued at 402 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for parts of the forecast
area Tuesday. Southwest to west winds gusting to 50 mph and
relative humidity below 10 percent are expected. Winds are
forecast to become northwesterly in the 25 to 35 mph range
with higher gusts in the very late afternoon and evening hours
which will cause any fires to shift in direction of movement.

A fire weather highlight may be needed Wednesday for locations
along and west of a line from Leoti to Burlington and Flagler.
In this area relative humidity near 15 percent will combine
with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph in the morning, decreasing
in the early afternoon.


Issued at 402 PM MDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Record low temperatures are possible Monday morning April 16 at
the following locations:

Hill City.........19 degrees set back in 1951
McCook............18 degrees set back in 1951


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for KSZ013-027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ253-254.



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