Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1143 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 1004 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Just completed an update. Intense precipitation rates have cooled
temperatures in the western portion of the area have cause a
changeover to snow or a mix or rain/snow. So have added that to
the forecast this morning. Also due to the continued
precipitation, thick cloud cover, and good cold air advection have
lowered high temperatures. It is possible that I am still too warm
got the downward trend started.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Today-tonight...for this morning am expecting likely to
categorical pops across much of the area before rapidly decreasing
from west to east as drier air aloft moves in from the west by mid
afternoon. This will be fairly brief as precipitation chances
increase as another wave moves out of Colorado and into much of
the area late this afternoon through this evening. After midnight
precipitation chances slowly decrease from west to east as drier
air aloft moves underneath an upper level low centered over south
central Nebraska/northwest Kansas. North to northwest winds will
be in the breezy to windy category with high temperatures in the
mid 40s to mid 50s. For the eastern parts of the area the high
will be in the morning before the cold front and cooler air moves

Wednesday-Wednesday night...could see some wraparound showers in the
morning across the far eastern forecast area before exiting to the
east and southeast as the upper low moves away from the area. 850mb
and bias corrected grids point to highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Focus then shifts to the arrival of another upper trough and cold
front which look to bring increasing winds to Yuma county toward
sunrise. Low temperatures in the low to upper 30s.

Thursday-Thursday night...main weather story will be the wind. Upper
trough and cold front move through during the day with north winds
gusting 35 to 45 mph, possibly a bit higher. High temperatures
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds decrease rapidly during
the night with low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Warm conditions will continue to persist in the long term forecast
period. Highs will start in the upper 60s on Friday and sit in the
mid to upper 70s through Monday due to high pressure sitting over
the area.

There are a couple of wind surges expected for the Tri-State area.
Expecting the overall pattern to start shifting in the early
weekend, with a disturbance moving through the area sometime
Sunday into Monday. Guidance is still disagreeing with the
expected impacts and timing, but it appears to be trending more
favorably to some strong with potentially severe thunderstorm
activity Monday through Tuesday evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Precipitation beginning to decrease and end near Kgld with a few
more hours of precipitation for Kmck left. For Kgld, Ifr
conditions should give way to Mvfr within a hour with rain/snow
showers near the site. Mvfr conditions will continue until 13z
Wednesday when vfr conditions return. North winds near 20 knots
with gusts to around 30 knots expected until 01z. From 01z to 15z
the winds will north to northwest near 10 knots. At 16z north
winds will increase to near 16 knots with gusts to near 24 knots.

For Kmck, Mvfr conditions are expected until 09z when they become
Ifr. At 15z, the conditions will return to Mvfr and continue
through the end of the period. Until 02z, north winds near 18
knots with gusts to around 27 knots are expected. At 02z, the
winds will shift to the northwest and decrease to near 11 knots.




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