Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Latest upper air and satellite show an upper level trough moving
east onto the plains.  At the surface a warm front was moving east
across the Tri-State Area.  Behind the front west winds were gusting
up to 60 MPH.  The high winds had created a corridor of blowing dust
extending from south of CO Springs northeast to Yuma.  To the
northwest a cold front was approaching.

Tonight high winds will spread from west to east behind a cold
front.  The highest winds will be in the evening when the base of
the upper level trough moves overhead.  The high wind threat will
end after midnight as the trough shifts east of the forecast area.
The threat for blowing dust will continue into the evening. As
mentioned earlier, confidence for where/if the blowing dust will
occur is low due to the recent snow. There is a corridor of dust
over the East Central CO, but that is mainly elevated allowing the
visibility to remain around 3 miles.

Wednesday the winds will be breezy but only gust 30-40 MPH during
the latter half of the morning/early afternoon.  During the
afternoon the winds will decline as the low level jet moves east of
the forecast area. Due to relative humidity falling to 20% or so
over the southwest part of the forecast area, elevated fire
conditions are likely. Considered issuing a fire weather watch but
the winds decrease as the relative humidity falls.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Main concern is exiting storm system early in the period with next
concern the chance of precipitation the beginning of next week.
Satellite continuing to show a highly amplified pattern from the
Pacific into the western Atlantic.

Still some wavering from the models in regards to the speed and
position details on incoming system. System is still not overland so
details on this system will probably continue to change. As has been
the case the Gfs has been the most consistent/changed the least from
run to run as it continues to be the furthest north and fastest.

Latest Ecmwf did slow and is further north from the previous run as
it continues to waver back and forth from more south to more north.
It remains in the middle of the pack. The Canadian is also slower
and further north from the previous run as it continues to be the
furthest south. WPC manual progs are more toward the slower and
further south. So considering latest trends, I did nudge up the
pops a little more Saturday and Saturday night.

For the rest of period, the models continue to have major
difficulties in resolving the flow pattern. Specifically they differ
on how amplified/far east they are with the trough/ridge/trough
pattern from the eastern Pacific into the center of the country.
There may or may not be a short wave or closed low depending on the
model in the center of the country. As a result I left alone the
pops the Forecaster Builder gave me from Monday to the end of the
period. Also left the other forecast parameters the FB gave me due
to these differences.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 06Z TAF
period. Northwest winds gusting between 30 and 50 mph will
decrease over the next few hours and will continue to decrease
through the day on Wednesday as the surface low and associated
steep pressure gradient move east out of the region. Some low
level wind shear is possible through the morning hours as surface
winds begin to decrease while winds above the near surface
inversion remain near 45kts.


KS...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT early this morning for

NE...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning
     for NEZ079>081.



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