Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Today-tonight....difficult forecast once again with various caveats
that could impact the entire forecast and the possibility of severe
weather late this afternoon through the evening.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing just north of the
forecast area this morning. We occasionally get cold outflow from
these storms that bring cold north to northeast winds and low
cloudiness into the area. If that develops its likely that the
available models at this point wont have a handle on it.

Current expectation is that much of the area will have considerable
cloudiness this morning before slowly dissipating south of the
interstate by mid to late afternoon. With dry air in the mid levels
its gonna be hard to generate precipitation, cant rule out a shower
or sprinkle here or there but for the most part it appears to be
dry. By 23z or 00z better moisture in the mid levels arrives from
the southwest and when combined with strong heating and possibly a
differential heating boundary along with increasing support at jet
level produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
generally south of the interstate. Large hail and damaging outflow
winds possibly producing blowing dust will be the primary threats. A
tornado cannot be ruled out. These strong to severe storms will
quickly move northeast this evening while increasing in coverage. By
midnight we may be in a lull as earlier storms lift out of the area.
There are varying model solutions to this so for now havent changed
much after midnight.

The high temperature forecast will be challenging and will be
dependent on how fast or slow the cloud cover remains over the
area and position of the warm front. Generally expecting the
warmest temperatures across the east and south with mid 80s to
around 90 with low 70s to near 80 across the northwest 1/2 of the
area. 850mb temperatures from the past few days support highs
close to 90 in Hill City and the mid 90s in Tribune and Leoti. Low
temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 in far eastern
Colorado, low to upper 50s east of the CO/KS border.

Saturday-Sunday night...below normal temperatures expected,
especially Sunday with continued chances of showers/thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

An unsettled pattern is anticipated during the extended period. A
large upper trough develops over the western CONUS, becoming a
closed low by Monday morning. Southwest flow forms aloft as a
result, and Gulf moisture remains over the region. The low weakens
midweek and lifts northward along the Rockies.

As this system evolves during this timeframe, several waves are
ejected from it onto the High Plains. These disturbances produce
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, the timing,
placement, and strength of these waves is difficult to determine
this far out due to model inconsistencies. With it being May, there
will probably be a potential for severe thunderstorms at some point,
but will have to wait to evaluate until we get closer to next week.

Temperatures climb from the upper 70s/low 80s on Monday to the 80s
across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday could be
slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low
temperatures will range from the low 50s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

KGLD, sub vfr conditions are expected this morning with southeast
winds near 12kts. For this afternoon vfr conditions are expected
to return with winds from the east-southeast near 15kts. Current
indications suggest strong to severe thunderstorms to possibly
impact the terminal in the 00z-01z timeframe. Should this develop
strong and gusty variable winds, locally heavy rainfall and
possibly hail will be the primary threats. After 09z or so stratus
is expected to return with winds from the east under 10 mph.

KMCK, mvfr cigs expected through 19z with winds generally from the
east or northeast gusting 20-30kts. From 20z-01z vfr conditions
expected with winds from the east near 12kts. Showers and
thunderstorms possible in the 02z-04z timeframe with reduced
visibilities. After 05z cigs slowly fall and should be below vfr
range after 10z.


Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Areas generally along and north of the interstate will have been
outlooked for a slight chance of excessive rainfall from this
morning through Saturday morning. Precipitation amounts of 1.5 to
2.0 inches are possible in these areas.




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