Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182009
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast still looks on track for this afternoon/evening with
convection expected to form vicinity of leading edge of outflow
boundary. Latest GOES imagery suggests boundary lies along
convergent zone of stable wave clouds and cumulus streets over
northern Greeley and Wichita counties extending up toward Gove
and over to Wakeeney. HRRR has been very consistent last 6 runs or
so with timing of storm initiation around 4-5 pm MDT and location
around highway 96. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests there may be
a couple more hours before CINH is overcome.

Guidance points to storms quickly developing upscale with discrete
storms existing in a narrow time window early on. Not thinking
much of a tornado threat given weak 1 km bulk shear and SRH
values, but best chances would likely be across far southern part
of our forecast area late this afternoon.

Given mean wind flow and high precipitable water values, potential
for heavy rainfall exists in areas which experience training
cells, perhaps with better chances over our north and northeast
counties.

On Saturday, cold front will push through the area with GFS a bit
faster than NAM, accompanied by showers. Current forecast has
Saturday high temps ranging from low 50s NW to low 70s SE, but
frontal timing may require refinement.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

An unsettled pattern is anticipated during the extended period. A
large upper trough develops over the western CONUS, becoming a
closed low by Monday morning. Southwest flow forms aloft as a
result, and Gulf moisture remains over the region. The low weakens
midweek and lifts northward along the Rockies.

As this system evolves during this timeframe, several waves are
ejected from it onto the High Plains. These disturbances produce
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, the timing,
placement, and strength of these waves is difficult to determine
this far out due to model inconsistencies. With it being May, there
will probably be a potential for severe thunderstorms at some point,
but will have to wait to evaluate until we get closer to next week.

Temperatures climb from the upper 70s/low 80s on Monday to the 80s
across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday could be
slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low
temperatures will range from the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact both
terminals after 00Z. Convection will develop south of the terminal
area between 22Z and 00Z and move north and northeast, impacting
KGLD in the 00Z-04Z timeframe and KMCK in the 02Z-06Z timeframe.
Large hail and damaging winds are possible with stronger storms.

After the storms move out, IFR stratus is forecast to develop at
both terminals which will gradually lift to MVFR ceilings Saturday
morning.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DLF


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