Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 130915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
315 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Today/Tonight: Little change in the overall synoptic pattern
compared to yesterday. Aside from weak low-level warm advection
in eastern CO (on the W/NW of an H85 thermal ridge over the
Central/Southern Plains), little if any additional forcing will be
present over the Tri-State area. Expect dry conditions to persist
with highs similar to yesterday. S/SW low-level flow will
strengthen over eastern CO and western KS late tonight as the H85
thermal ridge shifts further south into TX. With a persistent
southerly breeze, expect overnight lows warmer than previous
nights, in the mid/upper 20s to lower 30s.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: The upper level ridge over the
Intermountain West will shift east of the Rockies on Wed as an
expansive upper level low progresses slowly eastward ashore the
Pacific coast. Low-level southerly flow /warm advection/ will
strengthen over the Tri-State area during the day as a lee
cyclone deepens over eastern CO in response to increasingly
diffluent flow aloft over the Rockies. With the above in mind,
expect dry conditions and much warmer temperatures with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows Wed night in the mid/upper

Thursday/Thursday night: Challenging forecast. 00Z guidance
suggests that a potent shortwave will move ashore the central/
southern CA coast Wed night. After rounding the base of the
aforementioned upper low, guidance indicates that this feature
will eject ENE across the 4-Corners region (Thursday) to the High
Plains of CO/KS (Thursday night), and that the lee cyclone in
eastern CO will evolve into a more robust /mature/ mid-latitude
cyclone over the Tri-State area Thu/Thu night. Temperatures and
precipitation chances across the region will be tied to the
precise evolution of the lee cyclone, a feature that will not
exist for another 24-36 hrs, whose subsequent development, in
turn, will highly depend upon the evolution of numerous small
amplitude waves circumnavigating a large cyclonic gyre slowly
progressing ashore the Pacific coast. With the above in mind,
confidence in sensible weather conditions is extremely low,
particularly late Thu/Thu night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

A cold front will pass over the area on Friday dropping highs in
the mid 50s to upper 60s with lows overnight in the mid to upper
20s. Guidance has been fluctuating on impacts and severity, but,
at this time, expecting most of the Tri-State area to be impacted
by some rain showers.

There will be a brief brake from any showers on Saturday and
Sunday, until the next system moves over the area, Sunday night
and Monday. This system is starting to shape up to be possibly a
bigger event with rain transitioning to snow.

Tuesday, not much expected weather wise, and depending on Monday`s
snow cover, will impact the daily highs. There wasn`t enough
confidence to go against Superblend in the extended.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Initially light
and variable or light easterly winds will become SE/SSE at 10-15
knots at GLD this afternoon. 10-15 knot SSE/SE winds (perhaps
gusting up to 20 knots) will gradually veer to the south tonight.
At MCK, light/variable or light E/SE winds will persist longer
compared to GLD (perhaps through the afternoon), becoming SSE/SE
at 10 knots AOA sunset and gradually veering to the south




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