Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180546
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1146 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Updated to remove the last of the dust storm warning.
Winds decreased slightly for a couple hours following sunset, but
have come back up to a secondary maximum that will keep the high
wind warning in effect. The tightest pressure gradient on the back
side of the surface low is moving over the far eastern sections of
the forecast area now, so still expect winds to diminish somewhat
over the next several hours as the low moves eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Latest upper air and satellite show an upper level trough moving
east onto the plains.  At the surface a warm front was moving east
across the Tri-State Area.  Behind the front west winds were gusting
up to 60 MPH.  The high winds had created a corridor of blowing dust
extending from south of CO Springs northeast to Yuma.  To the
northwest a cold front was approaching.

Tonight high winds will spread from west to east behind a cold
front.  The highest winds will be in the evening when the base of
the upper level trough moves overhead.  The high wind threat will
end after midnight as the trough shifts east of the forecast area.
The threat for blowing dust will continue into the evening. As
mentioned earlier, confidence for where/if the blowing dust will
occur is low due to the recent snow. There is a corridor of dust
over the East Central CO, but that is mainly elevated allowing the
visibility to remain around 3 miles.

Wednesday the winds will be breezy but only gust 30-40 MPH during
the latter half of the morning/early afternoon.  During the
afternoon the winds will decline as the low level jet moves east of
the forecast area. Due to relative humidity falling to 20% or so
over the southwest part of the forecast area, elevated fire
conditions are likely. Considered issuing a fire weather watch but
the winds decrease as the relative humidity falls.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

In the extended(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...
Active weather pattern is expected for the period as another
strong H5 low is expected to sweep across the area with favored
track taking it to the south of the CWA, putting area in favorable
area for significant precipitation. Best chances look to be on
Friday and Friday night before low begins to dig to the south and
away from the area. Overall current forecast looked pretty good
with only marginal changes needed to overall timing and PoPs.

Probably the most pressing concern will be whether or not precip
will change from rain to snow across the area. Last 4 cycles of
GEFS ensemble data indicates precipitation should stay rain across
all but the western fringes of CWA and even there the rain seems
to dominant weather type. Given the broad area of southeasterly
flow, will be tough for cold air to overspread area fast enough to
result in any significant accumulations and feel confident that
overall winter threat will be small.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 06Z TAF
period. Northwest winds gusting between 30 and 50 mph will
decrease over the next few hours and will continue to decrease
through the day on Wednesday as the surface low and associated
steep pressure gradient move east out of the region. Some low
level wind shear is possible through the morning hours as surface
winds begin to decrease while winds above the near surface
inversion remain near 45kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ090>092.

NE...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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