Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Based on latest satellite trends showing developing cumulus and
radar indicating very light showers developing, added a slight
chance of light rain showers over northeast areas for a few hours
this afternoon. Visually from the office it appears some precip is
reaching the ground despite sfc RH around 30-40%. Any weak
showers/sprinkles will dissipate rapidly later this afternoon.

Otherwise little overall change to going forecast. Once surface
decouples around sunset winds overnight will go light and
variable trending toward SW late tonight into Wednesday. As upper
ridge continues to build into the Central High Plains during the
week the warming trend will continue. Wednesday highs will reach
the lower and middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Wednesday and Thursday the winds will be fairly light and
temperatures will warm as the upper level ridge slides over the
forecast area.

The upper ridge moves east of the region on Friday with a fast
moving short wave trough lifting out of the southwest U.S. and
across the forecast area by Friday evening.  Much above average
temperatures are expected on Friday with highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s. Have loaded the GFSMOS winds into the forecast on Friday
with stronger gusty south winds during the day ahead of the
deepening surface trough and upper system expected to move across
the region late in the day. Along with the warm temperatures and
winds over 25mph, RH values over the southwest third of the
forecast area are expected to be less than 20% with the far
southwest corner dropping to less than 15%. this will likely
produce critical fire weather conditions over the southwest
sections from mid day through early evening on Friday.

The surface low follows the upper low across the across Kansas
Friday night. Showers are expected across the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours  Dry conditions are
expected on Saturday with high temperatures cooling 5-10 degrees
from the highs on Friday.  The western sections of the forecast area
will continue to be dry, but with wind speeds expected to be lower,
fire weather conditions will likely be elevated, but do not appear
to be critical at this time.

SW flow aloft remains across the region through the weekend.
Differences in timing become more divergent between models over the
weekend with the GFS becoming more progressive with the series of
short wave troughs lifting out across the forecast area than the
ECMWF.  With low confidence in any particular solution, have kept
the Forecast Blender solution intact from late Sunday through
Tuesday. Areas of low probability precipitation are advertised
from the end of the weekend through the beginning portion of next
week with temperatures cooler and closer to average for this time
of year. This means the area could see a mix of light rain and
snow as a series of weak systems lift out across the region as the
upper southwest flow becomes more westerly.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Update at 2015Z: Added VCSH to KMCK TAF with BKN050 based on
latest satellite trends showing enhanced cumulus over C Nebraska
moving SE toward the MCK area.

VFR at both TAF sites through the period with SCT clds FL100-150.
At KGLD, gusty NW winds to 25-30 kts this afternoon with mixing
from aloft. Winds will rapidly diminish to Lt-Var around 00Z and
through the night. At KMCK NW winds this afternoon 10-20 kts will
become Lt-Var by 00Z and overnight. Winds Wednesday at both sites
will be SW 10-15.




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