Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
124 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Main concern will be upcoming precipitation from Friday into Saturday
evening. Secondary concerns will be elevated fire weather in the
far western portion of the area and winds on Friday. Satellite
showing a highly amplified pattern from the Pacific into the
western Atlantic. Storm system that will bring a change to our
weather will is moving into the west coast.

At mid levels...Models are not too bad however they all tend to be
too far east to start out. To not above, system is not overland and
has not been sampled by the upper air network. We will see if this
changes the model solutions. Trend over the last couple of days has
been to be slower but further north.

Today/tonight...Surface ridge will be pulling off to the east with
lee trough developing/intensifying as strong upper system moves to
the Great Basin. Winds will definitely increase into the 15 to 25
mph and maybe evening higher. Temperatures should be warmer but a
huge warmup will probably not happen due to the southeast component
of the wind.

Should be a mild night due to winds steady or increasing along with
increasing cloud cover. Dry conditions through not look in good
shape. Dry air mass will be in place, and the recent trend of slower
with this system support going dry. Elevated fire conditions still
expected in the western portion of Cheyenne county Colorado. Winds
will definitely be strong enough. It will be close the humidity
and duration do not look like it will make. The day shift will
need to watch this closely.

Friday/Friday night...Will like to see what happens this morning
once this incoming storm gets sampled by the upper air network.
Models keep changing every run. As stated the main trend has been to
be further north with the Ecmwf and Canadian showing the biggest
change. 1 to 2 days ago models had the storm centered over eastern
New Mexico. Now all of them now have the system over east central
and southeast Colorado by 12z Saturday. This now introduces the
possibility of a dry slot.

Models then stop the eastward progress of the system and then start
digging it southeast. General model consensus and Gefs/Sref
ensembles on the probability of measurable precipitation, supports a
very high probability that the region will get measurable. The
question now looks to be how much precipitation we will get. The
forecaster builder gave me high pops and those look reasonable.
However would say that beginning in the afternoon in the west and
over the entire area during the night, there looks to be nearly a
100 percent of precipitation. PWs are near 1.5 above normal.

As has been the case the last few days, most of the precipitation is
expected to be rain. The gulf will be open and will be seeing
persistent east winds through the period. Also this system does not
have a lot of cold air. So expect to get little if any snow.

Considering the strength of the system and the height falls
associated with, it will definitely get windy. I raised the winds a
little but I may not have raised it enough. As for the high
temperature, it will be dependent on the sky cover and how fast the
precipitation starts. The west should be the coolest.

Saturday/Saturday night...Where the models start differing is during
this period. They start taking the system southeast and elongate the
circulation which is usually not the best to get continued wrap
around precipitation. We should get measurable but not as much as
the day before. At this time the rainfall looks to end during the
evening. Also lowered the maxes a little considering the cloud cover
and ongoing precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

In the extended (Sunday Night-Thursday)...Somewhat active pattern
will continue through the rest of the week as another in a series
of short wave troughs drives a cold front across the area on
Tuesday. Aside from the precip chances as this system passes,
other concern for the period will be wind speeds Monday and
Tuesday. Right now looks like we may see period of 15-25 mph winds
both ahead and behind front but unlike last few systems there
does not look to be much potential for any high wind events. Fire
weather threat will remain marginal as well in spite of the winds
as afternoon.

Overall given the minor expected impacts and rather large variance
in temperatures in the later part of the period, do not see a lot
in the way of targets of opportunity and think overall
blended/averaged forecast is the best way forward.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions will rule through the 18Z TAF period. Ceilings will
be limited to scattered cirrus (20,000-25,000 ft agl) this
afternoon through tonight. Mid-level ceilings (5,000-8,000 ft agl)
will quickly overspread the region after sunrise (12-15Z) Friday

Winds will become southeast at 20-25 knots at the GLD terminal
this afternoon, with gusts up to 35 knots possible by late afternoon
and evening. Breezy southeast winds will persist overnight into
Friday morning. Winds will be slower to strengthen at the MCK
today, increasing to 15-20 knots during the late afternoon
(21-00Z). Winds at MCK will remain breezy (15-25 knots) overnight
into Friday morning.

With both terminals situated in the warm sector of a strengthening
lee cyclone, an environment characterized by a tightening MSLP
gradient and breezy southeast winds at the surface, LLWS criteria
is very unlikely to be met.




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