Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250827
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A warm and humid start to the day is expected today with
temperatures early this morning in the mid 70s and dewpoints in
the upper 60s. There is a little bit of scattered cloud cover
across central Texas but southerly flow above the surface is weak
and most areas will remain cloud free through sunrise. Farther to
the north, a complex of thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of
central Kansas with another smaller cluster entering northwest
Oklahoma. Most of this activity is expected to weaken over the
next several hours.

For today, upper ridging will continue to slowly nudge eastward
into the region keeping things hot and mostly dry. Highs will top
out in the low to mid 90s with heat index values near 100 degrees.
We`ll be watching the remnants of the convection in Oklahoma later
this morning. As it dies out, its remnant outflow boundary may
manage to spread into parts of North Texas. While we won`t have
any other appreciable forcing for ascent, the boundary itself
could lead to an isolated shower or storm during peak heating this
afternoon.

Slightly better rain/storm chances arrive later tonight. A weak
disturbance is expected to spread through the central Plains late
this afternoon. Thunderstorms are once again expected to develop
across parts of southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Given the
north-northwest flow aloft and modest 0-6km shear, these should
tend to organize into one or more clusters and spread southward
late this evening. With slightly better 925-850 mb flow and an
axis of rich theta-e air in place across western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas, these storms should be able to persist well into
the night. Modest instability and steep mid level lapse rates
would support at least a low end severe threat well into the
overnight hours. We`ll have the highest rain chances after dark
across our northwest and northern counties down to around I-20.
Thunderstorms should begin to weaken during the late overnight
hours as low level flow weakens significantly.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through next week/

Any convection associated with tonight`s MCS will likely have
either cleared our southern counties or dissipated by Saturday
morning. While it`s unclear if lingering subsidence in the wake of
this activity will hamper renewed storm development during the
afternoon, we`ll hold onto some low (20%) PoPs across the eastern
half of the CWA given lingering instability with shortwave
ridging still displaced a bit to our west. While the potential for
re-development does appear low at this time, increased deep layer
shear (30-40 kts) could support a strong-severe threat within a
moderately unstable airmass should a storm or two manage to
initiate along any left-over boundaries.

Otherwise, the main weather headline during the long term portion
of the forecast will be the heat, as upper-level high pressure
begins to build and spread northward into the southern CONUS.

High temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend are expected to
top out in the upper 90s to just in excess of 100 degrees across
some of our western counties. Dewpoint temperatures in the mid and
upper 60s will make it feel like it`s 98-104 or so, and only a
hint of a southerly breeze will do little to take the edge off
the humid conditions. While these values are just shy of our Heat
Advisory criteria, we continue to stress the importance of
exercising appropriate heat safety over the long weekend (checking
the back seat of your car, staying hydrated, taking frequent
breaks, etc.), especially since this will be the hottest stretch
of the year so far.

By Tuesday and into Wednesday, any tropical impacts look to remain
displaced well to our east as this potential system will likely
drift between a weakness between two high pressure centers. As the
high to our south and west begins to build northward into the end
of the week, our temperatures seem set to climb inexorably towards
near-record values. The progged 590+ dm 500 mb heights by
Thursday-Friday of next week are more typical of late July than
early June. Unfortunately, it appears the summer doldrums may be
here to stay, with extended ensemble guidance indicating even
hotter conditions next weekend and beyond...

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1221 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---MVFR ceiling potential at Waco and Arlington. Thunder
potential at Metroplex TAFs.

Waco Regional should experience intermittent MVFR cigs around and
just after daybreak on Friday. VFR will return during the mid-
morning hours. Arlington Municipal may be along the northern
periphery of the same modest surge of moisture and could also
experience some MVFR ceilings around FL020. The potential for MVFR
cigs at other Metroplex TAFs remains a tad lower and I`ll keep
VFR at the remaining sites. There`s a non-zero threat for some
showers between 12 and 18 UTC on Friday as a complex of convection
may attempt to dive southward towards the terminals. With the
weakening low level wind field, I feel that it`s likely that the
activity will remain north of the area, though some minor
disruptions to air traffic arriving from the Bonham cornerpost
will be possible. If convection from the north is able to survive
farther south than currently thought, an inclusion of VCSH or VCTS
may be necessary for the morning hours. Otherwise, 10 knot
southerly winds are expected through the afternoon.

Towards Friday afternoon, a couple of hi-res models develop
convection along a diffuse boundary to the west of the area and
push it towards the east. At this time, there doesn`t appear to be
a large amount of lift, so I`ll forgo mentioning any SHRA or TS
in the TAF during the 18-00 UTC time frame. The better likelihood
for convection will be later in the evening and into the early
morning hours on Saturday where SHRA and TSRA may slide southward
towards the Metroplex TAFs. While there is still some uncertainty
in the timing of activity, it does appear plausible that
convection will occur Friday evening and I`ve included a VCTS
group towards the tail end of the Metroplex TAFs. There will be
the potential for some gusty and erratic winds with this
convection. Any SHRA or TSRA is expected to remain north and west
of the Waco TAF during the 06 UTC TAF period.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  75  96  74  97 /  10  20  20   5   0
Waco                93  73  96  73  96 /  10  10  20   5   0
Paris               91  71  93  71  94 /  10  20  20   5   5
Denton              94  72  96  73  98 /  10  30  10   0   0
McKinney            93  72  94  73  96 /  10  20  20   5   5
Dallas              95  76  96  76  97 /  10  20  20   5   0
Terrell             93  72  94  72  96 /  10  20  20   5   5
Corsicana           92  72  92  72  94 /  10  10  20   5   0
Temple              93  72  95  72  96 /  10  10  20   5   0
Mineral Wells       96  71  98  71  99 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/91


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