Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
706 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018


As daytime heating slowly wanes this afternoon, the cumulus
present through most of the day have become less abundant. We are
left with a few remaining cumulus clouds for most of the area.
Dying convection that developed near KRPH did develop an anvil,
and it will likely remain just south of the metroplex TAF sites
through this evening.

VFR conditions will remain across North and Central Texas through
most of the night, with a return of MVFR around sunrise Friday. A
plume of moisture is expected to move northward along the
Interstate 35 corridor, affecting Waco initially, and eventually
the Dallas/Fort Worth TAF sites. The MVFR deck is expected to move
into KACT by 10Z, and DFW TAF sites by 12Z. At this point, have
left SCT020 for KDAL given confidence on the eastward extent of
the MVFR deck is low. Current model guidance suggest a more
continuous layer of low level moisture west of KDFW and KGKY,
leading to a BKN020 mention from 12-16Z.

Moving into the day on Friday, the forecast becomes more uncertain
as convective development across Oklahoma may have significant
implications on the forecast across North Texas. Given the low
confidence in the forecast, have opted to not mention any
precipitation this TAF cycle. However, a few hi-res models do
suggest the development of an MCS across Oklahoma. This guidance
then advertises the MCS to move southward into North Texas. If
this is the case, there would be a threat of thunderstorms to move
into the area around 00Z Saturday, bringing with it a northerly
wind shift. If guidance comes into better agreement on the
development and propagation of the MCS, a mention of thunder will
have to be added in subsequent TAF cycles.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 336 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

Isolated thunderstorms across the east and southeast counties will
quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of surface heating,
giving way to another warm and humid night. A stratus deck may
move northward into Central Texas, but with weak low level flow
will have trouble making it north of I-20. Low temperatures will
be roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late May, ranging from
the upper 60s to lower and middle 70s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 336 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/
/Friday through Thursday/

It will be another warm and humid day Friday with a slight chance
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms east of the I-35 corridor.
With the upper level ridge to the west, we will be under northwest
to northerly flow aloft. This should allow a upper level disturbance
in the flow aloft to move across Oklahoma Friday afternoon and
into North and Central Texas Friday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across Oklahoma Friday
afternoon. This activity should start to weaken as it moves into
North Texas Friday evening, but some strong to marginally severe
storms will be possible with the main threats being gusty winds up
to 60 mph and heavy rain that may result in some street and
stream flooding. Some of this activity may survive into Central
Texas overnight Friday night. Highs Friday will range from the
lower 90s east to the upper 90s northwest. Lows Friday night will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The upper level ridge currently to our west will build eastward
into the forecast area over the weekend as a tropical system moves
up across the north-central Gulf of Mexico Saturday and into the
middle Gulf Coast Sunday. This will result in hot and humid, but
generally rain-free weather across North and Central Texas through
the Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be lower to mid 90s east to
102 degrees west. Lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Heat index values Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 90s
to near 105 degrees. Given that this will be our first heat
wave of the season, we will emphasize the heat and its impact
in our Hazardous Weather Outlook and in Social Media graphics. If
the Heat Index values look to be a degree or two higher, we will
have to look at possibly issuing a Heat Advisory for parts of the
region for Sunday and Monday.

An upper level ridge is forecast to dominate the weather across
North and Central Texas Tuesday through Friday with hot and rain-
free weather. The GFS and ECMWF forecast surface temperatures
(not MOS guidance) indicate upper 90s northeast to over 108
degrees northwest mid to late week. For the official forecast
highs have gone with mid 90s northeast to 104 degrees northwest.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  93  73  93  74 /   5  10  40  10   5
Waco                71  92  71  94  72 /  10  10  40  10   0
Paris               70  91  71  91  71 /  10  20  40  20  10
Denton              72  93  71  95  73 /   5  10  40  10   5
McKinney            71  92  71  92  72 /   5  20  40  20   5
Dallas              74  94  73  94  75 /   5  10  40  10   5
Terrell             71  92  70  94  72 /  10  20  40  20   5
Corsicana           72  91  70  91  72 /  10  20  40  20   5
Temple              69  92  71  94  72 /  10  10  20  10   0
Mineral Wells       70  94  70  98  71 /   5  10  30  10   0




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