Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 122003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
303 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The rest of the day and tonight should remain very tranquil, as
high pressure continues to build over the interior United States.
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows some high clouds
trying to make it into our western counties. This cloud cover
appears to be the result of the 700 mb cold front interacting with
some lingering Pacific moisture over the region. This can be seen
via quick glance at the 12Z Midland RAOB which showed saturation
between 700 and 650 mb, which was coincident with the bottom of
the frontal inversion. Some of this cloud cover may stream into
our county warning area during the afternoon and evening, but
should thin out as cooler and drier continental air continues to
filter into the region. Still, there could be just enough high
cirrus remaining past midnight to prevent maximum radiational

Cold air advection should relax into the overnight hours, allowing
the planetary boundary layer to decouple. Normally, this would
allow for excellent radiational cooling, but as previously
mentioned, there may be just enough high-level cloud cover lasting
to around or just after midnight to prevent maximum cooling. As
such, low temperatures will likely be close to or slightly cooler
than they were last night. Given the slight uncertainty in what
will transpire with respect to the high-level clouds, overnight
lows may need to be bumped down in the evening update if the high
clouds are unable to make it into our western zones. Regardless,
temperatures should remain above freezing for virtually all of our
county warning area, except for perhaps the far northwestern
counties where dewpoints will be around 30 F.



/Tuesday Onward/

North winds will persist through Tuesday as surface high pressure
remains parked over the Central Plains with upper ridging
occurring overhead. This will keep mostly clear skies in place
through midweek with only occasional high cirrus passing by. A
gradual warming trend will occur through Wednesday especially as
winds begin to shift to the east and south. Have sided generally
with warmest guidance through this time given the recent cool
model biases which nudges temperatures up a degree or two from
previous forecasts. By Thursday, Gulf moisture will finally begin
returning, as will some low clouds. Increasing warm advection and
higher dewpoints will mean a warmer and more humid day with highs
expected to be 10+ degrees warmer than Wednesday.

The next chance for rain and thunderstorms will occur towards the
end of the week and into the weekend, although confidence in the
large scale pattern remains low at this time due to substantial
model differences. The Friday-Sunday time period will hinge on
how exactly the upper ridge to our west breaks down as the next
trough deepens over the western US. As the ridge weakens and broad
troughing begins to occur, southerly flow will increase which
will make for a warm and breezy Friday with highs in the 70s and
80s. A dryline will also be present just to our west extending
southward from a developing lee surface low. This boundary may
move through portions of our western zones Friday afternoon with
potentially some elevated fire concerns behind it. To the east,
the airmass will be moist and unstable, but also strongly capped.
A few showers may occur beneath the cap later Friday evening or
into Saturday. Also Friday night or Saturday, a slow-moving front
may encroach on North Texas, although its location will depend on
the larger scale pattern which remains uncertain. If it does
enter the forecast area, rain chances will increase, aided by the
front`s lift.

Another pair of subtle disturbances are progged to pivot through
the broad upper trough over the weekend which could lead to
additional chances for a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday
and Sunday. Have generally sided with the drier ECMWF solution
for now which surges the front back northward and produces only
some scattered activity within the warm sector. The GFS however
keeps the front draped through the forecast area and as a result
is generating substantially more QPF given the additional lifting
mechanism. While the finer details of the forecast remain
uncertain, trends do suggest a period of warmer than normal
temperatures continuing well into the second half of the month.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1242 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across the region with light northerly
winds. Surface high pressure will be slow to shift to the east
allowing northerly winds to prevail through the period. No
significant aviation concerns expected through the period.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    41  64  38  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                38  64  37  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               37  60  34  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              35  62  34  67  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            35  61  35  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              41  65  39  67  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             37  64  35  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           40  62  38  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              38  66  37  69  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       36  64  35  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0




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