Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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438
FXUS64 KFWD 191140 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
640 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Concerns: MVFR stratus this morning and again overnight. Potential
for showers or thunderstorms to impact the DFW airports early
Sunday morning.

A few light showers will move across the DFW Metroplex this
morning. Broken MVFR stratus with bases between 1-2 kft continues
to move north and increase in areal coverage across Central Texas
this morning. Have moved the MVFR stratus to a TEMPO group for
KACT, KGKY, KDAL and KDFW through 14-15Z, and removed the BKN
cigs mention from the remaining western Metroplex airports. Few
to scattered cumulus clouds will continue through the day once the
stratus has lifted, and wind speeds will increase to sustained
values around 15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts.

Overnight, MVFR stratus will surge north again but at an earlier
time, and cloud bases should remain above 1 kft. A complex of
storms will approach the region from the northwest but there is
low confidence in its timing. Some guidance has this rain/storms
reaching the Metroplex before 06Z, but opted for a later timing
following guidance that the complex will weaken as it moves into
North Texas. IF these storms survive into the Metroplex, gusty
winds will be possible. Confidence in this activity reaching KACT
is lower, especially before 12Z, and left the precip mention out
of the TAF at this time.

JLDunn

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 414 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Today will be another warm day but not as warm as Friday was. The
upper level ridge that dominated the area yesterday is now
centered east of the region, and southwest flow aloft will prevail
through this period. Isolated showers have been occurring
overnight, mainly west of Interstate 35, but very minimal
rainfall is likely reaching ground. These showers are rooted
fairly high, likely around 600-650 mb, with a decent dry layer
below this height as seen on the 00Z FWD sounding. A few showers
will remain possible early this morning, but the remainder of the
day is expected to be precipitation-free.

Low level stratus is working its way north into Central Texas
early this morning while mid and high level clouds traverse east
across the region. However, mostly sunny skies are expected by
afternoon, and temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Without the strength of the upper level ridge overhead,
high temperatures today are expected to average about 2-4 degrees
lower than yesterday. Breezy and gusty south winds of 10-20 mph
this afternoon will provide some relief, but residents engaging in
outdoor activities should still take precautions to protect
themselves from the heat this afternoon.

Late this afternoon and evening, a complex of storms is expected
to develop to our northwest along a cold front. This complex is
expected to accelerate southward with the help of a cold pool, but
it will run into increasing drier air in the lower and mid levels
as it tries to advance into North Texas. Depending on the
organization of the complex as it approaches North Texas late this
evening, this drier air could help the complex, resulting in
continued maintenance of downburst winds that seed the cold pool,
or it could hurt the complex resulting in a rapid weakening. Most
high resolution guidance brings the complex into our northwest
counties with a rapid weakening thereafter. It may send out an
outflow boundary that is able to generate some convection farther
away from the decaying complex, but a weakening low level jet
overnight will likely not support much additional development.
Instability will be limited, therefore, gusty winds and maybe some
small hail are possible with the storms as they move into North
Texas. However, cannot ruled out an isolated strong or severe
storm or two depending on the organization of the complex as it
arrives in our northwest counties. The highest PoPs are generally
north of Interstate 20 and west of Interstate 35W.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 414 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/
/Next Week/

North and Central Texas will spend the early part of the
forthcoming week beneath turbulent southwest flow. While the
majority of the impulses within the flow will track well to our
west, primarily impacting West Texas during this period, the
corridor of unsettled weather is trending farther east. In
addition to enhanced rain chances, this also means increased cloud
cover and a corresponding decrease in daytime temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday.

A sizable MCS may be on our western doorstep at daybreak Sunday
morning. Although it will be well separated from the original
frontal boundary that spawned it, its extent and how expansive
the associated cold pool remains during the early morning hours
will determine how long it survives Sunday morning. Even if the
activity is unable to move deep into the CWA during the day
Sunday, it will likely have disturbed the surface wind field.
After a couple of breezy days, residual outflow boundaries should
be able to survive in weakened surface flow, and redevelopment
will be possible Sunday afternoon. The most likely areas to have
outdoor plans disrupted will be along and west of the I-35
corridor. The cloud cover and rain-cooled outflow early in the
day may spoil the potential instability during the afternoon, but
current forecast temperatures assume much of the region is able to
effectively warm. In any event, the weak shear regime should limit
the lifespan of any strong storms that are able to form, but if a
well defined pseudo-front is within our CWA, the severe potential
will need to be reassessed.

The next significant ripple in the flow will result in another
nocturnal MCS across West Texas Sunday night. This may also make a
charge toward North Texas early Monday. Even if it isn`t as robust
as its predecessor, warm advection showers and isolated storms may
already be streaming across North and Central Texas before it
were to arrive. Regardless of any morning activity, the unstable
and largely uncapped environment could allow for disorganized
daytime showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Additional nocturnal convection to our west and the weak flow
regime above North and Central Texas will maintain precipitation
chances into the middle of the week. The extent of the rainfall
early in the week may delay the invasion of a strengthening
subtropical ridge over Mexico. In addition, unsettled weather over
the Gulf of Mexico may force the ridge to amplify into the western
U.S. instead. This could result in a northwest flow regime late
next week; the GFS is now quite bullish with a late season cold
front surging into the Southern Plains next weekend. There are
plenty of uncertainties regarding the forecast the next several
days, but considering our spring precipitation deficits to date,
the enhanced prospects for rainfall and the potential effect on
the synoptic pattern overall could help to postpone the onset of
summer heat.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  72  87  71  89 /  10  30  30  20  30
Waco                93  72  87  68  89 /  10  20  40  20  30
Paris               90  69  86  69  87 /  10  10  20  10  30
Denton              91  70  85  68  88 /  10  40  30  20  30
McKinney            90  71  86  69  87 /  10  20  20  20  30
Dallas              92  73  88  72  89 /  10  30  30  20  30
Terrell             91  72  87  70  89 /  10  20  20  20  30
Corsicana           91  71  87  70  88 /  10  20  20  20  30
Temple              92  71  87  68  88 /  10  20  40  20  30
Mineral Wells       91  68  84  67  87 /  10  50  50  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/25



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