Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160614
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
114 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The center of the upper low is slow to depart, hugging the IA/MO
border as it very slowly treks east.

The pesky status shield will probably be a problem with forecast
lows tonight. It is very slow to slip east, and has actually shown
signs of retrograding west this afternoon. Tough call on sky cover
in our east especially. HRRR keeps most of any fog just west of
the CWA, but close enough for me to keep the patchy fog from the
previous forecast in.

Kept low temps similar, except raised a bit in our east where we
may stay in the clouds. Lowered highs for Monday, judging by model
performance for today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

A day of short-wave ridging will give us near normal highs for
Tuesday before the next wave comes by Tuesday night. Most models
continue to focus most energy north of us, but qpf amounts are
showing up farther south. Could be cold enough for some snow, but
not going to get too excited yet, as models were a bit overblown
with the previous late season system. Stuck some thunder in for
the evening with modest elevated CAPE still expected.

Next focus will be weekend system. For the most part, it will be
warm enough for mainly rain, although the ECMWF indicates a bit
more colder air. Still a bit early to make any sweeping
speculations on snow amounts for a latter half of April system, as
far as snow is concerned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

General overview:
Confidence is very high in precip-free conditions and is
moderately high in VFR visbility throughout. That leaves ceiling
as the major question mark, especially during these first 3-6
hours as a stubborn MVFR stratus deck has remained in place (KGRI)
or moved back in from the east (KEAR). Wind-wise, this will be a
much "quieter" period than the past few days, with sustained
speeds throughout the period largely below 11kt, and direction
transitioning from light/variable to southeasterly-easterly with
time. Read on for more ceiling comments...

Ceiling:
As was suspected here 24 hours ago, the MVFR stratus that had been
in place much of the past 24 hours at KGRI (and has since drifted
back west into KEAR) has been a struggle for several sets of
forecast models/guidance to handle. Based on satellite trends and
what currently appears to be the most reliable model solution,
this MVFR deck should gradually erode along its edges during these
first 3-6 hours. In theory, KEAR is most favored to return to VFR
first and have taken a "best stab" with 09Z, while KGRI could
easily hold on a few hours longer, and have gone with 12Z. Of
course, each of these times could easily be off somewhat given
the already very tricky nature of this cloud deck. Once the
stratus finally does abate, expect no worse than scattered lower
clouds during the day, and scattered high clouds Monday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

As we continue our incredibly cold (overall) first half of April,
various cold temperature records have been broken/could yet be
broken for the April 15th-16th time frame at Grand Island and
Hastings airports, our two primary climate records sites. The
details follow:

ALREADY OCCURRED SUNDAY:

** Coldest HIGH temp for April 15th, and also the coldest high on
 record so late into the spring at Grand Island! **
- Grand Island: New April 15th record of 31 degrees (previous was
  32 in 2000). This was the latest spring occurrence of a max temp
  of 31-or-colder on record. Oddly enough, the previous latest
  mark was just set the day before on April 14th.
- Hastings: New April 15th record of 31 degrees (previous was 32
  in 2000).

** Coldest LOW temp for April 15th (Sunday) **
- Hastings: New April 15th record of 21 degrees...previous was 23
  in 2014

UPCOMING/POSSIBLE TODAY:

** Coldest low temperature for April 16th (Monday morning) **
- Grand Island: Record is 20 in 1904...forecast is 20
- Hastings: Record is 20 in 1951...forecast is 20

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch



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