Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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843
FXUS63 KGID 172321
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
621 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Precipitation chances have been increased tonight as an upper low
pressure system crosses the Central Plains, with the better
chances oriented north of I-80 and especially north of Hwy 92
based on the track of the system. Although the system is a quick
one, with rain initially, the rain will mix with and change to
light snow as cold air deepens behind a cold front. Light snow
accumulations up to one and two inches are possible for locations
north of Hwy 92.

Wind: A cold front has reached western Nebraska and Kansas and
NW winds have already gusted over 50 and 60 mph in western KS. The
front should reach our western zones toward 01Z, with wind speeds
increasing behind the front in our west after 02-03Z. The high
wind warning begins at 00Z and will not change timing with arrival
of the strong winds not too long after 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Most of the cirrus has moved out of the forecast area this
afternoon, but even with sunshine, the temperatures are struggling
to warm very fast, especially in the north.

Tonight a surface low moves through Kansas as an upper level wave
moves into the forecast area. There are a few concerns with the
system as it moves through. First, there will be a cold front that
moves through this evening into the overnight hours. Winds will turn
from the east to the north/northwest and increase. Winds aloft are
around 50 to 60 knots and with cold advection the higher winds could
mix down to the surface. Have already pushed the winds up in the
southwest and changed the high wind watch to a warning. There are a
couple of concerns with this. There is a pretty good inversion that
the winds will have to mix through to get to the surface.

The next concern will be thunderstorms. There is MUCAPE of around
1200 j/kg for portions of the area during the evening. Have kept
some thunderstorms, mainly isolated, in the southeast part of the
area. That brings up the precipitation chances for tonight. There
could be some showers for much of the area, but the north has the
best chance and some if not all of north central Kansas may have
little to none. In addition, as the low moves to the east, there
will be some cooler air moving into the area and there could be some
snow in the northern part of the forecast area. Latest amounts look
like up to an inch of snow.

On Wednesday, there could be a few flurries or sprinkles before the
precipitation moves out of the area. The northwest winds will
continue to be breezy, but not as strong as overnight. This will
keep temperatures on the cooler side for tomorrow. Even with the
cooler temperatures, the relative humidity will be low in north
central Kansas. With the wind, there will be near critical fire
weather conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

A surface low starts to settle into the area Wednesday night and
winds start to diminish. By Thursday, the surface high moves off to
the east and winds will turn back to the south. Despite the south
winds and increasing sunshine, the temperatures will only gain a few
degrees from highs Wednesday. There is a little warm advection
Thursday night, but temperatures will be a little warmer.

An upper low in the Rockies Thursday night into Friday will move
into the plains Friday night into Saturday. This system is in the
Southern Plains and has been moving a little further south. There
could be a little precipitation on Friday with some showers moving
into the forecast area from the west. With the system moving further
south, the best chances for some showers will be the southern part
of the forecast area. With the system further south there is not as
much cold air with it and there will be only a little snow mixed in.

Sunday through Monday will be dry and a little warmer. By Monday
night there is another weak wave that moves in and brings a little
chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

The terminals will see changing weather conditions tonight with
the arrival of a strong cold front and upper low pressure system.
Winds will shift northwest and increase behind the front, and
chances for primarily rain showers exist through the overnight
hours. Cloud heights will lower, primarily to MVFR, however a
period IFR ceilings is also forecast. Cloud heights will gradually
improve Wednesday afternoon, while winds remain strong/gusty from
the northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Gusty winds from the north are expected on Wednesday. In addition,
the relative humidity will drop to around 25 percent for portions
of north central Kansas. Near critical fire weather conditions are
expected Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ082-083.

KS...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ005-006-017-
     018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fay
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Fay
FIRE WEATHER...JCB



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