Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
800 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Satellite and observations indicate there is cirrus across the
forecast area this afternoon. There is a nearly stationary front
across north central Kansas. This is keeping the winds lighter in
the area where the temperatures are the warmest.

The remainder of the afternoon will continue with the front across
the far southern part of the forecast area. The temperatures have
warmed to the lower 70s and relative humidity is in the 20 to 25
percent range. The winds continue to be a little gusty in this area
and will maintain the red flag warning as it is.

A surface low developing in eastern Colorado will move to the east
as an upper low approaches from the west. These are expected to move
through northern Kansas during the night. Precipitation is expected
to develop during the evening and spread across the area during the
night. Expect there to be some showers as the upper low moves
through the area. The MUCAPE is in the 500 to 700 j/kg range during
the night. The best chances for thunder will be during the overnight
hours. During the night, the temperatures continue to stay warm
enough that liquid precipitation.

On Friday, the low moves to the east and there will be a little
cooler air moving into the area. Temperatures during the day will be
warm enough that expect all rain, but as the temperatures cool off
late in the afternoon, there could be a mix of some rain or snow
far north in the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

As the temperatures cool off Friday evening, there could be a mix of
some rain or snow, but there is also a small chance that there could
be a little freezing rain. The main concern with all of this is that
the colder air moves in as the precipitation should be coming to an
end. The period for any freezing precipitation should be rather
narrow and it should be mostly rain mixing with or changing to snow
for the northwest part of the forecast area.

A weak surface high moves into the area late Friday night into
Saturday morning. This should clear things out and keep some cooler
temperatures across the area. By Saturday afternoon into Sunday, the
high moves to the east and there is a little warm advection, so
Sunday should be warmer than Saturday.

The next upper level low approaches the area Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. The models have a few differences as this
system moves through, but it is more details. There will be some
precipitation across the area as this system moves through and there
could be some decent amounts. How much cold air filters in behind
the low and how strong and exact track are a little more in
question. There will be enough cold air that there could be some
rain or snow mix late Sunday night into Monday morning, then
temperatures warm back up and it is liquid again. The precipitation
should be moving out of the area Monday night, and there could be a
little snow before it moves out.

There will be northwest flow across the area Tuesday through
Thursday. On Tuesday there is a weak wave and a little localized
precipitation, but not real sure how much there would really be. The
remainder of the period should have a warming trend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

A tricky TAF forecast as a potent upper system approaches from the
west causing low clouds, a chance for rain, low level wind shear
and strong surface winds.

Tonight the surface low will be south of the terminals and
easterly winds will remain stout with gusts to 25 to 30kts.
Low level wind shear will also be a concern during the overnight

The sky is clear as of this issuance, but this will quickly change
as the upper system approaches. Coverage will increase and
ceilings will drop to MVFR by morning and IFR expected as the rain
sets in. The chances for scattered rain and a very small chance of
a thunderstorm will persist late this evening into the overnight
hours, but the best chance for persistent rain will be during the
morning and early afternoon hours.




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