Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 112335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Starting with the current big picture in the mid/upper levels,
basically have low pressure in the eastern CONUS and high pressure
in the west. Several closed lows noted on water vapor imagery in
the east including one just moving off the Canadian coast and into
the Atlantic, a second dropping south from northern Ontario, and
the third one, that brought light snow to the NE part of our CWA
overnight, now dropping SSE into central Missouri. Meanwhile
heights are building just to our west with 70-100 meter rises at
UNR and LBF at 500 mb. High amplitude ridge continues to build
into the Rockies, although there is a subtle wave trying to push
across Idaho. At the surface, gusty north winds from yesterday
continued today as the pressure gradient remained fairly tight
with a 1032 mb high pressure building into central SDak. Low
clouds hung around a bit linger than expected causing temperatures
to stay cooler by a few degrees especially in the eastern CWA.

Question for tonight is will the low clouds push through the
entire CWA. Original thought was they would move east during the
day today, which has finally occurred, just slower than
anticipated. Ultimately this will impact low temperatures across
the area, especially if they hang around overnight in the east.
Currently thinking is they will gradually move east of the CWA
after dark. With better radiational cooling in the west, will
drop lows there a tad more than in the east. Otherwise, winds
should gradually decrease after sunset as the surface high drops
south and into the CWA. Tranquil weather in store for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Things continue to look fairly quiet for the upcoming workweek.
End up with a bit of a blocking pattern with upper level lows over
the east and west CONUS and a high amplitude ridge over the
Rockies. Everything is progged to gradually shift eastward and the
ridge axis is expected to stretch over the Central Plains by
Thursday. Questions still exist regarding when the West coast low
moves east and how it impacts the middle part of the country.
Could be a few shortwaves ejecting out ahead of the main low which
may lead to at least a few small chances of light precip from
Friday into the weekend. Latest runs of the operational GFS and
EC both bring the primary upper low into our area Sun or Sun
night. However this is still way too far out in time to get overly
specific on the timing and track of the upper low.

Previous forecaster noted possible fire weather concerns starting
Wed and that continues to be the case. Significant warming trend
begins Wed which will continue through Saturday. In addition, a
decent chance for higher winds as the CWA sits between a lee
trough to our west and high pressure just off to the southeast.
Superblend showing RH values progged in the lower/mid 20 percent
range by Wed afternoon. Wouldn`t hang my hat on Superblend nailing
RH values but if nothing else, it does cause one to raise their


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Ceilings will be a close call for about the first hour at KGRI as
the back edge of stratus continues to erode and shift east. There
is a chance that some MVFR ceilings could stick around just long
enough to give KGRI a brief MVFR ceiling to kick this period off,
but should move off to the east soon after 00Z. The forecast
keeps the MVFR ceilings east from the beginning, so an amendment
is possible if the back edge of the stratus is halted from moving
east for some reason. Wind will continue to decrease in speed into
the overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes.




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