Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 111726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Early this morning a clipper system was translating southeast
through eastern Nebraska and produced light snow across our
northeast zones, primarily north of an Aurora to York line. Social
media posts in the Shelby area revealed light snow accumulations.
The snow will end by daybreak as the system departs and moves into
Missouri. In its wake, cold air will continue to advect south
through the day aboard gusty north winds and temperatures will be
noticeable colder in the 30s and 40s.

The surface pressure gradient will relax by evening as a 1033mb
surface high builds south from the Dakotas across Nebraska, allowing
wind speeds to diminish. In good radiating conditions overnight,
temperatures will be chilly with lows in the teens/20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The weather remains quiet through the majority of the workweek, with
fairly seasonal temperatures forecast Monday/Tuesday in northerly
flow aloft in between an upper ridge axis over the Rockies and an
upper trough deepening in the lower Great Lakes region. With the
deepening system to the east, cooler air edges westward and
temperatures Tuesday are trending down by a degree or two primarily
for eastern areas in proximity to the thermal trough.

Temperatures then warm for middle of the week as the western
ridge reaches the plains ahead of closed low pressure system
moving into the western CONUS. Temperatures are shaping up to be
quite mild, reaching the 60s Wednesday and the 70s Thursday. The
warm temperatures will be accompanied by wind, with Wednesday
shaping up to be the windiest day in a tight gradient ahead of a
surface trough along front range/high plains. The combination of
the gusty winds and low relative humidity in our southern zones
may lead to critical or near critical fire weather conditions and
this will be monitored.

The pattern transitions to southwest flow aloft by the weekend
with some light hit or miss chances for light rain possible as
subtle disturbances move through. The western CONUS system is
expected to reach the plains a week from now (next Sunday), or
just beyond this forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Expect MVFR conditions to continue until mid/late afternoon, then
become VFR. Large area of low clouds over eastern/northern Neb
has been slow to advect southeast and has shown very little
erosion so far today. By timing the back edge of the clouds over
the past several hours, expect them to clear both terminals around
21Z. Raised Cigs from 1500 to 2500 ft for a few hours after that,
but this may be a case where we clear out completely. If low
clouds do linger, it would be more likely at KGRI than KEAR as it
will be a close call whether or not these low clouds to the
northwest can completely clear KGRI. Otherwise - quiet weather
expected overnight and early Sunday as high pressure builds into
the region.




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