Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 171854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated


Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

A weakening upper low is expected to pass through the area later
this afternoon and evening. Another low pressure system is expected
to affect the area early next week. In the wake of this system, high
pressure will build into the area for the middle and later parts of
next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Weakening upper low currently over Illinois will be passing over the
local area later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Radar
indicates there is still some patches of light rain and drizzle
associated with this feature, so will keep some PoPs going into the
evening hours until the upper low passes off to the east. Most of
the lingering precipitation should be in the form of rain, but there
could be a light mix at times over some of the northern zones.

Short term model data suggest the low clouds should start scattering
out from the north around sunset, with the clearing line slowly
dropping south tonight, although the clearing line may not reach the
far southern zones until well after midnight.

There may be some fog development, especially later tonight, as
skies clear with a light gradient and residual moisture.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look
reasonable, so little if any adjustments planned.


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Next upper trough is expected to move into the Midwest by Monday,
with an associated surface low passing near of south of the Ohio
River. Warm advection begins Sunday night, so will bring PoPs back
into the southern zones Sunday night, and spread them northward into
the rest of the area on Monday and Monday night. The highest PoPs at
this time appear to be Monday afternoon and evening over the
southern zones, coinciding with the best lift.

Thicknesses suggest rain will be the predominate precipitation type
Sunday night and Monday, however thicknesses are expected to lower
Monday night, allowing for more of a mixed precipitation threat by
that time. Some light accumulations are possible over parts of the
area Monday night.

Will keep some chance PoPs for mixed precipitation into Tuesday
morning as the system passes off to the east, however some of the
ensembles suggest the precipitation threat may linger longer
into the day Tuesday.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Sunday
may be a bit on the warm side. Will nudge the guidance highs down a
category. The remainder of the periods look OK at this time.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Issued at 339 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Models have come into better agreement for the long term, pushing
a closed upper low south of its previous forecast track. As a
result, the surface front is also pushed south, and this will keep
the best chances for precipitation south of the forecast area.
While last night`s runs looked relatively wet through Wednesday
night, they now look dry with the southern shift. Temperatures
will run below normal through the long term with the upper low
moving through and reinforcing the eastern U.S. upper trough. High
confidence in the below normal temperatures through the period,
with moderate confidence in mostly dry conditions for most of the
long term. By Friday another system could move in and bring
chances for more widespread precipitation to the area.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 171500z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

IFR ceilings with scattered showers improving to MVFR by evening
and VFR overnight.

Low pressure over extreme southwest Indiana will track east across
northern Kentucky.  Weather depiction indicates scattered showers
and IFR ceilings from 6 hundred to 1 thousand feet.  Expect little
change this afternoon and then a gradual improvement this evening
and beyond as drier air spreads south across Indiana.

An area of high pressure over the upper midwest will move to
northern and central Indiana by 12Z Sunday.  NortheaST winds up
to 8 knots will become light north this evening and variable by




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