Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240623
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

High pressure will bring dry and warm weather to central Indiana
through Friday night. It will be more humid and warmer still for the
Memorial Day weekend. Periodic thunderstorm chances will also return
to all or parts of central Indiana by Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...

Issued at 925 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

No changes to be made. Indy dewpoints should rise back up a few
degrees. Patchy cirrus topping the ridge will be present at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Friday through Saturday/
Issued at 303 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

The main concern for the short term will be late in the period
regarding whether or not to have small PoPs going over all or parts
of the area Friday night and Saturday. Otherwise, confidence is high
in dry and warm conditions. High confidence that conditions will
become even warmer and more humid by Friday as similar models agree
that surface high will shift to off the east coast and allow light
southerly slow. Should see highs in the upper 80s by Friday per the
blend. Most areas should also see the Heat Index reach the lower 90s
by Saturday. Normal highs this time of year are in the 70s.

Models in fair agreement that an upper wave will move over the Great
Lakes Friday night and Saturday as a front moves to the western
Great Lakes and central Plains. In addition, a tropical low will be
over the northern Gulf with associated moisture spreading to near
the Ohio River. Models all have some QPF by Saturday and hint at
some south and west Friday night. So, feel the chance blend PoPs are
warranted by Saturday with lesser blend chances ok south and west
06z-12z Saturday. Instability progs show enough instability for
thunder.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

ECMWF continues its recent trends of slowing down the approaching
upper low to the south...and keeping ridging in place aloft
through the first part of next week.

ECMWF shows a ridge of high pressure beginning to build across
Indiana on Sunday Through Tuesday as a weak short wave passes
across the Great Lakes on Sunday. This forcing should remain well
north of Indiana. However...forecast soundings show steep lapse
rates with a warm and humid air mass in place within the lower
levels. Thus with reachable convective temperatures...pop-up
showers or storm...late in the day...cannot be ruled out.
However...coverage and confidence for Sunday through Tuesday
remains very low...and most locations should experience just dry
hot weather. Any pops will be 30 or less...with best chances in
the late afternoon.

For now...the ECMWF suggests an upper low arriving on Wednesday
into Thursday from the deep south. This will bring better chance
for precip...however given how the models have been handling the
evolution of this system...confidence remains low.

Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through
Thursday as warm and moist southerly surface flow persists.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 240600Z Tafs/...

Issued at 1233 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR Conditions are expected this Taf period.

High Pressure in place over Indiana and Ohio will continue to
provide VFR Conditions this TAF period. Forecast soundings and
Time height sections show a dry column with unreachable convective
temperatures. Thus will only include some high passing CI clouds
along with light winds.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP



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