Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 252048
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
448 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Very warm temperatures are expected for Memorial day weekend and
into next week. There will be some chances for thunderstorms off
and on but widespread coverage or washouts are not expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Chances for storms will move in tonight. While storms are already
on radar southwest of the forecast area, there is much drier dew
points over central Indiana and thus these storms are having a
hard time making it northeast. Did add some small chances to the
southwestern counties for the next few hours in case a few make it
there.

Chances for storms later tonight look better over the northern
counties and maximized pops there during the overnight. Low
temperatures will be a bit warmer than last night given the
southerly flow and more cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Chances for storms will continue through the day on Saturday. High
resolution output trends indicate there could be dry weather
building in by the afternoon, but not confident in this solution
so will keep at least a slight chance going through the day.

Saturday night and Sunday morning models are trending dry and went
with this. Sunday afternoon though still looking at some
variability in instability in the models. Still think some
isolated popups could occur over central and southeast parts of
the area so included a slight chance in those locations.

High confidence high temperatures Sunday and Monday will climb
into the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Ridging aloft at the end of the holiday weekend will hold serve
through midweek across much of the area...gradually getting
undercut by the remnants of newly named Alberto lifting out of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Model guidance differs on how far north the Alberto remnants will
make it Wednesday into Thursday before being kicked out to the
east. Remain somewhat skeptical that the remnants make it all the
way into the Ohio Valley...but think the potential is there for
the Alberto leftovers to get close enough to produce better
convective coverage over the forecast area with the influx of
tropical moisture interacting with an unstable airmass. Highest
rain chances come Wednesday and Wednesday night before the system
departs to the east on Thursday as a rapidly weakening upper wave.
Not everyone is likely to see rain with this system...but the
potential for some locations to get under soaking showers and
storms will grow during this timeframe.

Highs Tuesday will again make a run at 90 before the arrival of
more clouds and rain pull temperatures back into the mid 80s for
Wednesday and Thursday. With the ridging most likely to
reestablish late next week into next weekend once the Alberto
remnants shift away from the region...highs back near if not
slightly above 90 return as early as Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 25/2100Z IND TAF Update/...

Issued at 433 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Lowered ceilings to 6 kft and also increased the winds slightly based
on current trends. No other changes to the going forecast. The
previous discussion follows...


Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018
Brief restrictions possible within or near convection...otherwise
VFR conditions expected.

Dry weather will continue with limited cloud coverage through the
rest of the afternoon as the region remains under the influence of
a departing area of high pressure. Mid level clouds will spread
into from the west this evening ahead of developing convection
associated with the an upper level wave. The wave will drift
across the region overnight with scattered convection expected to
accompany the feature. With low confidence in timing and coverage
of showers and storms...will place a VCTS in at all terminals from
late evening into Saturday morning. As it stands at this
point...it appears KLAF stands the best opportunity at seeing
brief but direct impacts from storms.

Convection will shift east with the wave Saturday morning with
partly cloud skies resuming. Potential exists for additional
scattered diurnal development later on Saturday afternoon. Winds
will be predominately light south/southwest through the forecast
period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...MRD/Ryan


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