Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211954

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
254 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 253 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2018

Primary forecast focus is on rain chances across northern and
northeastern Missouri Thursday and greater rain and thunder chances
Friday into Saturday.

This afternoon, a narrow band of low clouds continues to persist
from Iowa southward across the Ozarks into northeastern Arkansas.
With this area of clouds finally beginning to clear the KS/MO border,
temperatures have rebounded gradually. Highs in the low to mid 50s
are still expected.

For tomorrow, another cool morning, before winds increase out of the
south and southwest in response to an increasing 500mb ridge
building off the Rockies and over the central Plains. Additionally,
rain chances will exist for portions of north and northeastern
Missouri through the day in response to a weak 850mb baroclinic zone
developing ahead of the 500mb ridge. To the west of precipitation,
southerly flow will assist in a noticeable warming trend, with highs
by the afternoon across western Missouri into eastern Kansas
reaching the mid 60s with gradually clearing skies in the afternoon.

For Friday, with the 500mb ridge shifting eastward, forced by a
developing short wave trough off the Colorado Rockies, Rain chances
will increase through the afternoon into the evening as the
associated surface low lifts into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri overnight into Saturday. Thunderstorm chances exist,
primarily across western and southwestern Missouri. The chance for
any severe storms is low. Stout warm air advection will be delayed
until the late afternoon. This is enough for some minor MLCAPE
development across portions of western into southern Missouri.
However, the chance for severe storms is very low at this time.

Late in the weekend into next week, long range guidance is in decent
agreement with the development of a strong 500mb trough over the
inter-mountain west. This will result in a steady increase in rain
chances through Monday into Tuesday. Light to moderate rainfall is
possible, with the greatest chances On Tuesday.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2018

An area of MVFR ceilings will continue to persist just east of the
TAF sites, with some scattered to broken VFR ceilings lingering for
KMCI and KMKC for the first few hours of the period. Overall, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will remain light,
primarily out of the northwest shifting out of the south overnight
and through the early morning hours.




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