Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211134

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Issued at 319 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

Water vapor imagery showing well-defined upper low slowly tracking
through the Front Range this morning, with established moist
southerly flow resulting in widespread shwr activity over central
KS. While the radar may look ominous, a fair amount of dry low and
mid-level air remains in place this morning, as evidenced by the
00z TOP RAOB. Considering we still have 25+ degree dewpoint
depressions, along with available forecast soundings suggesting we
still have a long ways to wait before enough saturation occurs to
lead to measurable precip, have elected to trim back on pops this
morning and early afternoon. As it currently stands, our eastern
Kansas counties stand the best chance of seeing rain today, with
chances decreasing pretty rapidly the farther you go east. In
response to this, have also increased high temps a little, with
upper 50s to lower 60s now expected.

Rain chances look to increase overnight as upper low starts to
move into the Southern Plains. As this occurs, lobes of PV will
lift northeast into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley, with
enough saturation finally occurring for measurable rain,
especially south of I-70. Further north, enough dry air may remain
in place to keep much of the overnight period dry. Rain showers to
continue into the morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday
before upper low finally gets a nudge to the east as upstream
ridging begins building east into the Central Plains. Not a
washout by any means, but rain will be around for a good portion
of the day south of I-70.

Aforementioned ridging to slide east on Monday which should allow
temps to warm into the upper 60s for daytime highs under mostly
sunny skies. Next weather feature in the form of a cold front is
expected to slide across the region on Tuesday, bringing the next
chance for rain to the area. Available model guidance suggests
very little in the way of instability generation out ahead of the
front, which should ensure little fanfare with its passage. Dry
weather looks to return both Wednesday and Thursday, before
another cold front bring the next chance for rain to the area on
Friday. All-in-all, a pretty quiet weather week is expected.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018

Despite the intimidating appearance on radar, dry air will limit
widespread rain from impacting area terminals this morning. Cannot
rule out a brief shwr or two through 16z and based on this, have
carried a VCSH mention for a few hours this morning. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions with easterly winds 8-12 kts today, before
shifting to the northeast after 00z this evening. Better chances
for rain arrive overnight as the upper low pressure center starts
passing to our south, however northward extend of precip remains
in question this morning. For now, have maintained VCSH mention at
both KC terminals, with a -SHRA mention further south at IXD
trends can be better established with later arriving model
guidance. Expect MVFR cigs to overspread the region after the 06z
time frame with these restrictions prevailing through the
conclusion of the fcst period.




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