Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140815
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

Chilly conditions will continue to filter into the region today
as cold air wraps in behind a departing surface low, especially
this afternoon as a secondary cold surge pushes through behind the
occlusion. Initially temperatures may not be notably colder
behind the wind shift, however the increasing northwest winds
will bring wind chills into the 30s by this afternoon and the
teens overnight tonight. Precipitation will likely also wrap in
behind the surface low today, and while precip type will begin as
light rain showers, a wintry mix and an eventual changeover to
snow is expected as temperatures fall aloft this evening and
tonight.

Precip type will not only depend on how quickly temperatures
decrease aloft, but also the depth of saturation which will vary
from north to south. Near the IA/MO border, saturation will deepen
and cloud ice should develop by late afternoon to early evening,
allowing precipitation to transition from a light rain shower or
heavy drizzle to snow (at least aloft). As temperatures continue
to cool throughout the column, precipitation type will transition
to all snow across northern MO late this evening into tonight.
This transition will happen much later or may never fully occur
across southern portions of the CWA, keeping precipitation type
more in the drizzle/flurries category. Patchy freezing drizzle is
possible albeit not likely as temperatures cool in west central
MO, since the warmest air aloft remains above the saturated layer
and may allow a straight transition from drizzle to flurries. The
best dynamics of the trowal move over between 09z-15z Sunday and
may increase snow rates along and north of I-70 enough for some
snow accumulation, particularly north of Highway 36 where colder
temperatures and deeper saturation should allow better snow
growth. Total accumulations should range from a tenth or so on
grassy surfaces mainly south of Highway 36 up to an inch or more
near the MO/IA border.

Temperatures will reach the mid 20s to lower 30s by sunrise Sunday
morning even despite cloud cover across the region, which could
damage plants that have recently blossomed or been moved outdoors.
As a result, have issued a freeze warning for areas that should
drop to 28 or below and have also seen enough recent growth to
warrant the warning. Clearing skies and continued cold conditions
on Monday morning may result in an even larger freeze warning
stretching through central MO, but will tackle after the current
warning expires.

Warming temperatures and quieter conditions are expected as the
work week progresses. There are some indications of another system
impacting the region next weekend, so will continue to monitor as
it approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

Cold advection in the wake of the cold frontal passage, and the
approach of the mid to upper level trough/cold air, will spread
MVFR ceilings into the area near sunrise. Areas of drizzle look
possible by midday with some showers possible late tomorrow
afternoon into the evening hours. As temperatures cool further,
this could result in light snow moving into eastern KS and
northwestern MO. Winds will be from the west to northwest through
the forecast and should increase tomorrow evening as the pressure
gradient increase.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ028-029-037-
     038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...CDB



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