Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 201852

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
152 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Issued at 148 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

Beneficial rains have been observed across areas mainly south of
I-70 as of the early afternoon. Totals have generally ranged from
a tenth to 1 inch for most of the area, while totals south of
Highway 50 have ranged from half an inch up to an inch and a half.
While no flooding concerns were observed, these more southern
areas could be sensitive to additional rainfall expected this
afternoon. Up to a half inch more is possible until the evening
time frame, with locally higher amounts possible. The forcing for
this subsequent round of activity will come in the form of
moisture convergence ahead of a frontal boundary stretched across
south central Kansas into central Oklahoma. A weak mid-level
impulse will also provide modest ascent to maintain rain showers
with embedded thunderstorms as the boundary pushes into the local
area. Expecting to see this line of activity to affect eastern
Kansas and western Missouri in the early afternoon, before pushing
through central and then eastern Missouri through the late
afternoon and early evening. While no widespread severe weather is
expected due to a stabilized local environment, some storms could
become organized enough to promote the potential for hail and
gusty winds, as pockets of clearing have been noted via visible
satellite imagery.

Low-level cloud cover will hold on through the overnight hours
before scattering out late Monday morning and afternoon. Weak
northwesterly surface flow will maintain near-seasonal high temps
Monday afternoon, though a ridging pattern through the mid-week will
bring a return of above-seasonable temps through the better part of
the work week. Would not be surprised to see some areas reach the 90
degree mark from Wednesday through the late week. There are some
chances of storm development throughout the week as weak
shortwaves trek across the ridge axis, with the most likely setup
for widespread precip holding off until Thursday. Weak wind fields
aloft during this time should moderate any chances of storms
becoming severe, though this trend will need to be monitored given
a progged unstable environment. Better chances for more organized
convection looks to hold off until the weekend time frame.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

A second round of thunderstorms and rain showers will develop
early in the forecast period, though will be relatively broken in
coverage. This activity should diminish toward sunset. Cooler NW
surface flow later tonight should assist in the development of
MVFR ceilings overnight into Monday morning. Will need to monitor
the potential for IFR development as well during that time frame.
Dry conditions will persist heading into the end of the forecast
period and into Monday afternoon.




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