Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231114

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

Satellite imagery this morning shows a large ridge axis extending
north across the front range of the Rockies, leaving a northwest
flow in place across our section of the Plains. However, of
importance for today is a much smaller shortwave, currently moving
across California, as this trough will be the focus for our rain
chances later today and tonight as it burrows through the ridge
axis to our west inducing storms across the Lower Missouri River

As the shortwave moves across the Great Basin today, lee side
troughing will develop across the front range, with a surface low
developing in the western Kansas by tonight. This will help enhance
the return flow from the Gulf today, sharpening up a warm front
wallowing across western Missouri, likely bringing a lot of cloud
cover to our region as isentropic upglide ramps up across the
warm front this afternoon, along with the potential for some
drizzle. Isentropic lift should focus moisture, and by extension
precipitation development, across areas from north central to east
Missouri by the late afternoon to early evening hours. Many the
CAM models are in agreement on this. There will be a bit of
elevated instability to work with, so a bit of thunder may be
embedded within the broader region of showers expected, though no
severe weather is expected at this time. Showers will be rather
wide spread across northern Missouri later tonight as the trough
moves across the Plains, though heaviest rainfall amounts will
likely be in areas of northeast to eastern Missouri late tonight
into Saturday morning. Areas of western Missouri may see little
more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
Otherwise, for today, despite the cloud cover, and possible
drizzle, the southerly winds will leave areas from St Joseph to
Sedalia with afternoon highs in the 60s, while areas farther north
and east may wallow in the 50s under thicker cloud cover. Our
rain chance will exit to the east Saturday, along with the
shortwave trough that brought the rain. But, this wont be our last
chance at rain.

This weekend, as the leading shortwave trough exits to the east, a
large trough will be digging into the Great Basin, and will set the
stage for more rainy weather, potential as early as Sunday
afternoon. Currently, the western CONUS trough is expected to result
in several rounds of precipitation late Sunday through Tuesday due
to the resulting southwest flow. At a minimum, the I-44 corridor
looks a bit active to start next work week.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

VFR conditions will start the day, and prevail through much of the
daylight hours. CIGs will start lowering towards the end of the
day, with MVFR CIGs likely by this evening along with vicinity
showers as moisture overruns the warm front stretched across the
region. Expect CIGs to lower into the IFR, and maybe LIFR, range
overnight as moisture moves north towards a broad region of
storms, which will likely be just to the north and east of the
terminals late tonight. Otherwise, there might be an issue with
low level wind shear overnight as surface winds will veer quickly
with height owing to the surface low moving through along with
the upper level trough.




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