Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 112326

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Issued at 218 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

The active pattern will subside for the remainder of the evening
through much of the week ahead. The shortwave trough responsible for
rain and wintry precip will be pushed downstream as a broad ridging
pattern develops across the Northern Rockies. Ongoing cold advection
in the wake of a cold front will keep temps relatively cool this
afternoon. Cloud cover will remain in place until Monday morning as
a subsidence inversion develops with the arrival of a stable air
mass aloft. Clearing clouds early Monday will help temps to rebound
into the low 50s by Monday afternoon. Overnight sub-freezing lows
will continue both Monday and Tuesday night before strong warm
advection returns by the mid week into the late week. Upper-level
ridging centered over the central CONUS will maintain dry
conditions through late Thursday before the next round of
precipitation develops Friday into the early weekend. Until that
time, unseasonably warm temps will advect into the area ahead of
an 850 hPa low, progged to position over central Kansas by late
Thursday. Increased mixing in the lower levels coincident with the
axis of warm advection will help to push surface temps into the
upper 60s Thursday afternoon and the lower 70s by Friday.
Overnight lows Thursday will approach normal high temp values for
mid-March. All said, the increasing temperature trend for the mid
to late week, combined with gusty winds and decreasing relative
humidities, will present a multi-day period for increased fire
weather danger. This should be limited to Wednesday and Thursday,
before RH values begin to increase early Friday.

Increasing low-level moisture at that time will set the stage for
the next chance of precipitation beginning early Friday morning
through Saturday. Though there is some model discrepancy involved,
upper-level support should be lacking during this time and
moisture looks to be mainly confined to the lower levels. While a
light rain or drizzle is expected with this first round of
precipitation, better chances will arrive by the late weekend. A
more notable upper-level trough will then arrive, which may
support the development of more widespread rain showers and
possible thunderstorms by the late weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2018

MVFR cigs to prevail overnight as low-level moisture remains
trapped under a developing subsidence inversion. North winds of
5-10 kts overnight will become more northwesterly after 12z as
upstream surface ridge approaches. Drier air working into the
region after sunrise should allow for categorical improvements
back to VFR by 15z or so.




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