Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A fairly flat upper level ridge will be moving across the Rockies
this period, but also undergoing some amplification as a deep trough
moves into California. Quiet sensible weather across western Kansas
will be the ultimate result, although we will see surface winds pick
up this afternoon, thanks to leeside trough axis starting to deepen
across eastern Colorado. Winds this afternoon will likely range 15
to 20 mph, although a bit lighter toward central and south central
Kansas. There will be about a 3 or 4 degC improvement in 850mb
temperatures from yesterday, and this will translate to about a 5 to
7 degree warm up at the surface from that of yesterday. One
potential fly in the ointment could be increased mid level cloud
later on in the day, although this should not have a substantial
impact on temperature. Breezy south winds will likely continue
through the night (mainly east of U83) as the leeside trough axis
remains fairly deep, but it will also start to push a little more
east in the 06-12Z Thursday time frame, so winds will actually start
to decrease west of U83 after 06Z or so. Areas farther west where
winds decrease will see lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s, with
lower 40s likely across central and south central KS where the
persistent south breeze should keep the nocturnal boundary layer
mixed enough.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A dramatic warmup will reach a crescendo on Friday, and the latest
forecast is a continuation of the previous -- widespread highs in
the mid-upper 80s to around 90 along the Oklahoma border. The global
models are a bit stronger with the embedded jet streak coming out of
the southwest flow pattern on Friday, so surface winds will probably
be a bit stronger than previously forecast as well -- especially
across far southwest KS where mixing will be deeper and the 850mb
height gradient is tighter. A ~996mb surface low will push out
across west central KS Friday evening, with a fairly decent surface
warm front developing across northern Kansas. A rather substantial
cap at 700mb (+7 to +8C temps) in the warm sector southeast of the
surface low will surely prevent any precipitation in the surface
warm/moist sector. The ECMWF and GFS both point at elevated
convection developing across far northern KS into southern Nebraska,
so the result of this thinking is a dry forecast for all WFO DDC
areas late Friday/Friday Night.

Going into the weekend, a surface high will push into the region to
start the weekend, although it will certainly not be all that cold,
and highs Saturday are still forecast to be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s for most. The same goes for Sunday, although upper 70s
will start to expand into far southwest KS as we start to see return
flow to southerly winds. Another big western trough will start to
take shape across the Great Basin late weekend into early next week,
and this large scale trough could deepen just enough into the Desert
Southwest region to create favorable scenario for precipitation
across southwest Kansas in the early-mid next week time frame. The
three major global spectral deterministic models (ECMWF, Canadian,
GFS) all show a sizable upper low across Arizona by Tuesday Night
with strong south-southwest flow from northern Mexico through west
Texas. A polar front will likely be south of southwest Kansas around
this time, and this would certainly foster decent precipitation
given frontogenesis and isentropic lift. The huge question, though,
is where this will all materialize at. This is simply too deep into
the white noise at this time, but keep checking back on the mid next
week forecast!


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A dry atmosphere in place across western Kansas will lead to a
continuation of VFR flight category. South winds will pick up in
speed to 13 to 16 knots by midday and continue through early
evening before dropping back down to the 9 to 12 knot range. No
directional wind shift is forecast through this TAF period.


Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon across
southwest Kansas west of Highway 283 and south of Highway 96 as
afternoon relative humidity falls to 18 to 24 percent. In this area,
south winds will increase to the 15 to 20 mph range, with some gusts
at times in the 25 to 30 mph range. A respite in aggressive fire
weather conditions is expected Thursday with much lighter winds, but
on Friday we will likely see a dramatic shift back to Elevated to
Significant (Critical) fire weather over much of southwest Kansas as
temperatures soar through the 80s, relative humidity falls to 12 to
18 percent (mainly far southwest KS), and southwest winds at 25 to
35 mph.


DDC  66  40  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  67  37  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  39  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
P28  65  41  73  47 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
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