567
FXUS63 KDDC 071946
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms likely to move into western
  Kansas late this evening, however not as widespread as the
  previous night with Slight Risk of severe (Level 2 of 5)
  confined to far west central Kansas Johnson to Scott City and
  points northwest.

- Hot temperatures will overspread the southwest Kansas region
  Thursday afternoon with widespread highs in the upper 90s to
  lower 100s.

- Fairly strong summer cold front will push south Friday with
  additional thunderstorm chances and a return to "cooler"
  temperatures with Saturday afternoon highs in the lower to mid
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Early this afternoon, the overall sensible weather was rather quiet
with no thunderstorms around or even in the vicinity of southwest
Kansas. By 19Z, there was a small corridor of surface-based cumulus
development in our northern counties from roughly Bazine up toward
Ellis along I-70. Earlier in the day, there was a weak surface wind
convergence axis, however this subtle convergence axis was weakening
through the mid-afternoon, and there is only a very slight chance of
an isolated thunderstorm or two along this convergence axis. As
winds everywhere become southeasterly, the focus will turn way back
west, as typical this time of year for this time of the day, toward
the higher terrain of Colorado, specifically Palmer Divide and
Cheyenne Ridge region. This is where, once again, one or two
strong/severe mesoscale convective systems (MCS) will materialize,
eventually growing further upscale with strong cold pools and begin
rolling southeast toward far west central and/or far southwest
Kansas.  The deep layer shear and thermodynamic profile are not as
impressive as yesterday (i.e. dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s vs.
the upper 60s to lower 70s like we have seen the past couple of
days), so MCS maintenance will be a little lower, and thus the
prospects of MCS duration late into the night are not quite as
likely as the past couple of nights. POPs this evening through late
night are lower than last night, as a result, given lower
probability of a more sustained MCS tonight, however these will need
to be adjusted upward or downward based on latest satellite, radar,
and HRRR model trends this evening.

Over the next couple of days, thunderstorm chances really decrease
as the upper level ridge expands across Colorado and adjacent
western Kansas, and this will begin a warming trend especially
Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday will be the hottest day of the 7-
day period ahead of the next cold front. We should see afternoon
highs Thursday well into the upper 90s with some lower 100s most
likely across the western DDC CWA, generally west of U283 and also
the Red Hills region along the Oklahoma line. The resulting heat
index will likely not be pushing into Heat Advisory criteria as
dewpoints will likely be lower to the mid to upper 50s resulting in
good evaporation potential with relative humidity falling well into
the 20s percent. We will only have one day of widespread highs upper
90s to around 100 as a rather impressive cold front (by July
standards) will push south on Friday. Well into the cooler air mass
Saturday, afternoon highs will likely be a refreshing lower to mid
80s across our southwest Kansas region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A weak MSLP gradient resulted in light and variable winds across
southwest Kansas this afternoon. Weak winds will continue
through this TAF period with the prevailing direction from the
southeast. Another round of thunderstorms appears likely to move
out of eastern Colorado late this evening, but the model
consensus is tonight`s activity will not be as widespread in
coverage as yesterday, so we will only carry PROB30 for
thunderstorms late this evening/overnight at GCK and keep DDC,
LBL, and HYS thunderstorm-free for this synoptic TAF issuance.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid