Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
692 FXUS64 KHGX 270505 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1205 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 -Daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues into early next week, with the highest rain chances occuring on Sunday. -Plume of mid-level Saharan Dust to bring hazy skies by Sunday and especially Monday. -Conditions trend hotter next week, reaching the mid/upper 90s inland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 MB RAP analysis show a complex mid/upper pattern over central and eastern CONUS. We have a ridge centered near the Mid-Atlantic while a mid/upper low sits over Florida. A mid/upper trough axis appears to extend from NW Mexico to the central and northern plains. For our neck of the woods, this pattern has brought deep tropical flow from the Gulf, along with a smattering of vort maxes embedded in the flow, helping to enhance the diurnal cycle of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We suspect that this pattern will remain in place through Saturday, before ridging begins its gradual build over our region by Sunday. Not every neighborhood will experience a shower/thunderstorm on Friday/Saturday. But those that do could experience brief heavy downpours and localized flooding. Tis the season! Initially, the upcoming pattern shift is expected to result in increased rainfall chances. The building ridge should steer a W Carribean tropical disturbance into the SW Gulf / Bay of Campeche. Though the system should pass well to our south, the steepening LL gradient will enhance the already present deep tropical flow from the Gulf. The resulting PWAT surge will tend to increase shower/thunderstorm coverage on Sunday and possibly into Monday (especially over our southern and coastal counties). HOWEVER, the prospect of mid-level warm dusty air does add an extra ounce of uncertainty. Because if the warmer, dry layer in the middle levels acts as a cap, then my Sunday and especially Monday PoPs are probably too high. Shower/thunderstorm chances are expected to decrease as we approach the middle of the week thanks to the building ridge and maybe some lingering mid-level dry/dusty air. Another consequence of the building ridge will be the rising temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to average in the upper 80s to low 90s through Sunday or Monday. But beyond then, inland areas are expected to be in the mid 90s, potentially upper 90s. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Showers gradually coming to an end from south to north this evening. All terminals are at VFR. MVFR CIGs move in to terminals north of IAH overnight into Friday morning, becoming VFR once again by afternoon. Winds will be light and variable overnight with S/SSE winds prevailing through the day Friday. Showers will be possible again Friday; however, coverage will be more spotty, so confidence is low on which terminals could be impacted. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Light to moderate onshore flow and 2 to 4 foot seas are expected through the middle of next week, along with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms. Not every location will see rain every day. A disturbance passing from the western Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche is expected to bring higher shower and thunderstorm chances along with a modest increase in winds and seas on Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 92 73 92 75 / 10 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 92 76 92 77 / 30 0 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 82 89 81 / 20 0 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Self