Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 142050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The area of high pressure that has been in control much of this
week will slide eastward this evening, helping easterly winds to
turn more southeasterly. Tonight should be the last cool night of
the week, with low temperatures tonight dipping into the low 40s-
50s. Clear skies will become partly cloudy early Thursday, as
clouds move in from the west and as onshore flow returns to the
forecast. Both the SREF and NAM hint at a slight chance for some
patchy fog to develop in the northwestern zones of the forecast
area in the early morning hours Thursday. Due to low confidence
based on trends in short term guidance, have left the mention of
patchy fog out the of forecast for now. Precipitable water values
will rise to 1.1-1.3 inches by Thursday afternoon, and mostly
cloudy skies will prevail in the evening hours.

Upper level ridging will begin to dampen and zonal flow will
prevail late Thursday. An increase in Gulf moisture due to
southerly flow, and the influence of a few upper-level
disturbances will act to provide lift and increase our chances for
showers mainly west of I-45 late Thursday afternoon. The chance
for showers expands eastward across the region by early Friday
morning. Friday afternoon a shortwave will move west to east
across the mid-west and both showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. At this time, the best instability looks to be further
inland away from the coast with forecast soundings indicating
potential low level lapse rates of 6.6-7.3 C/km and surface-based
CAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings also
revealed a pocket of dry air in the mid-levels which could act to
provide a strong cap on any available instability. Best chance for
shower and thunderstorm coverage Friday afternoon will be east of
I-45 as the shortwave swings across the region.

Temperatures will be on the rise through the end of this week,
with high temperatures reaching into the low 80s on Friday. Dew
points will follow a similar trend through the week, ending the
week in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The next cold front will reach the northern edge of our area late
Sunday night and quietly pass through the area with only a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms. The cold front should
successfully make it off the coast by Monday afternoon, leaving
behind pleasant, dry weather with highs in the 70s and lows in the



.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Satellite imagery shows that some thin high clouds continue to
move over the area and should continue to do so through tomorrow
afternoon. High pressure over the plains should continue to move
southeast today. This will allow light E winds will become SE late
afternoon and continue into Thursday. VFR conditions expected
with maybe some low clouds increasing by late Thursday.



East winds will gradually become southeast overnight and southerly
over the weekend as the surface high pressure ridge shifts to our
east. Onshore winds increase Thursday into Friday before decreasing
slightly over the weekend as weak frontal boundary stalls well inland
from the coast. A stronger front is likely to move off shore late
Monday into Tuesday with a wind shift back to the northeast.

Seas will remain at 1 to 3 feet through Thursday, but will begin to
increase from Thursday night into Friday with the increase in winds.
Seas may remain around 3 to 5 feet through the weekend.

Increasing southerly winds may also increase tide levels to slightly
above normal on on Friday. Tides may stay slightly elevated into
the weekend.



A resuming on-shore flow will increase afternoon minimum relative
humidity to the mid 40s tomorrow and from the mid-50s to near 60
percent on Friday. Mixing heights will range from 3500-4000 feet
tomorrow afternoon with transport winds increasing to near 15
knots from the South. Low clouds may be possible Friday morning.




College Station (CLL)  47  74  62  81  63 /   0  10  30  30  10
Houston (IAH)          51  75  65  81  65 /   0  10  30  50  10
Galveston (GLS)        60  72  67  75  68 /   0  10  30  40  10






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